US Market Weekly Outlook - Week 1 Aug 2017

Welcome to the first week of August 2017!

Time flies! We are already in the 8th month of 2017 and so far, the US Market has performed exactly what I predicted it to every step of the way and all the predictions I made on 1 Jan about 2017 has unfolded exactly the way I expected, including last week.

Last week ended a small sideways, bearish inclined week exactly as I have predicted it last Monday morning with the S&P500 closing a mere -0.10% lower. This was what I said last Monday morning:

"Well, after 2 weeks of strong rallying with a total of over 60 points and over 2.5% gained on the S&P500 in just 2 weeks, the market has come to a point of being short term overbought and is now in a place where the inclination would be sideways, a very small positive week or a very small negative week."

However, I also mentioned on  Friday that the market looks teetering on the edge of an intermediate correction.Yes, I still think that way because this is a very healthy looking primary bull trend which goes into an intermediate correction every about 4 months so far. And its been 4 months since the last intermediate correction back in March 2017.

That along with the recent very unstable and uncommitted behavior of investors going in and out of bonds every other day makes it very possible for the market to go into an intermediate correction at this point. But I do not expect the intermediate correction to be a sharp one should it happen but rather the kind of dragged out -50 point-ish kind of gentle correction like we have seen over the past year so far. This could come on the back of poorer than expected ISM index Tuesday and Jobs Report Friday this week as both economic indicators are due for some pullback after months of phenomenal showing.

In line with this outlook, me and my Master's Stock Options Picks subscribers also took a nice 48.6% profit or $715 on 5 contracts of SPY's call options last Friday, on top of the 35.5% profit we took on QQQ call options last Thursday. Did you profit from this last rally like we did? Join me for just $1 now!

For now, the market turns a short term neutral trend within an intermediate and primary bull trend.

Market Teethering On a Correction?

Market closed mixed yesterday with the Dow posting a surprise gain of +85 points or 0.39% while the Nasdaq retreated by 40% or 0.63% and S&P500 marginally lower by 2 points or 0.1%. This was what I meant when I told paid subscribers yesterday that:

"Even though the market still look very bullish, there is a secret undercurrent of bearishness brewing as investors return to the safety of bonds and take advantage of  the high bond yields even in a bullish day like yesterday. This tells me that investors are moving out of the market while the herd is probably moving in at this point. As such, I would start to be very careful around this area"

(Yes, I only publicly post my report every other day at best but paid subscribers get my reports DAILY for FREE... sign up now! It takes only one winning trade to make that back and MORE, you know it!)

Today, options traders also turned more cautious, bringing total equities put call ratio back to par. All in all, the market is looking very short term uncertain at this point due to the recent sharp run up and the market is set to fulfill the prediction I made on Monday morning that the market this week is going to end up sideways or slightly negative, proving once again the predictability of the market.

The earnings season could also have contributed to this uncertainty and volatility as investors take short term profit on earnings releases. If you are think of taking advantage of these earnings through the use of an Earnings Straddle, please read my latest free tutorial on The Problem With Earnings Straddle first before attempting to do so.

Another thing I told paid subscribers yesterday was the the market might even go into an intermediate correction at this point, the kind we saw back in March due to the run up over the past few months. However, that is still just a possibility and I am closely monitoring how high the chance of that happening is. 

In anticipation of such volatility, me and my Master's Stock Options Picks Subscribers have also taken profit on our call options position in QQQ, making a decent 35.5% profit / about $1500 on 5 contracts. Take a look at the trade here. 

For now, the market remains in all out bull trend.

FOMC Announcement Day Trading Pattern?

EXACTLY as I have predicted on Monday morning, the US market was largely negative inclined on Monday and even though Tuesday was a positive close for the Dow, it was a negative one for the Nasdaq so I would say its a mixed close. Here was what I said in the last report:

"Basically a sideways week that is more inclined to see some profit taking on Monday and Tuesday early in the week."

So far so good, no surprises both positive nor negative.

Yes, I don't like positive surprises because if its a surprise, it means that I am not fully prepared to take advantage of it and that I have missed being able to maximize my profits. 

Today is FOMC announcement day and there should be no real surprises here. Market behavior today is also expected to be characteristic of every FOMC announcement day with limited trading range in the morning before the release and a sudden decisive movement after the release is made. I still think we should be seeing plenty of profit taking today and for the rest of the week and I am already seeing a surge in trading volume yesterday, which usually marks a short term peak, backed by a surged in bond yields as investors rushed for equities, yes, even they can get it wrong sometimes. So I won't be surprised to see a negative close today.

This is why me and my Optiontradingpedia.com Premium Options Picks subscribers have taken profit on half of our profitable call options on QQQ yesterday so as to enjoy some of the profits while minimizing exposure. (If you missed profiting so far, miss out no more, join me for just $1 now!)

For now, the US Market remains in short term, intermediate and primary bull trend (aka all out bull trend)

Will the US Market Continue Rally This Week?

US Market last week closed positive exactly how I predicted it to last Monday morning with the S&P500 gaining 25 points or 1.05%, bring the prepositioned SPY call options that me and my Master's Stock Options Picks subscribers took more than 40% into profit so far. (Did you miss profiting from last week's move? Profit with me for just $1 now!)

This was what I said last Monday:
"With economic data and the S&P500 returning back to an all out bullish trend from a short term neutral trend, this week continues to be bullish inclined"

So, the question that begs answering is, will the US market continue to rally this week? (that's what you guys came here to find out right? :) )

Well, after 2 weeks of strong rallying with a total of over 60 points and over 2.5% gained on the S&P500 in just 2 weeks, the market has come to a point of being short term overbought and is now in a place where the inclination would be sideways, a very small positive week or a very small negative week. Basically a sideways week that is more inclined to see some profit taking on Monday and Tuesday early in the week.

The only big releases this week would be Wednesday's FOMC announcement, which is not expected to change anything, and Friday's GDP which is expected to beat, which may be the impetus to take back some early week losses in order to close the week somewhat sideways.

However, with nothing in the fundamentals nor technicals to suggest that this bull trend is over, I expect the bullishness to recover over the next few weeks just like how the S&P500 did back in November 2016 and would in fact be taking this opportunity to preposition for the next move... preposition with me now!

For now, the market remains in short term, intermediate and primary bull trend.

Expiration Friday July... Effect?

Its July Expiration Friday and when regular vanilla options would expire. How would it affect the US market?

Well, nothing significant or measurable.

That's right. Even though Quadruple Witching Fridays have a specific effect on the US market, usually resulting in a huge volume day with limited movement as derivatives traders take delivery and almost instantly sell their deliverables.(Learn about what Quadruple Witching is) We would also be taking profit on our shorts as our Ride The Flow trading methodology turns in yet another profitable month. (Check out my Ride The Flow trading methodology)

So far this week, the US market has done EXACTLY what I have predicted it would in my report last Monday morning, ending significantly higher as the bull run continues (read my Monday Morning Report). Bond yields were slightly lower today even though the market continues to hold up strongly, while total equities put call ratio continues to trade strongly in favor of call options as options traders remain bullish on the market and yesterday's Leading Indicators beat expectations and continues to point towards healthy growth in the economy. So far, everything continues to point towards a bullish inclination as the week look set to finish in the green.

Another correctly called week and another profitable week. :)

For now, the market remains in all out bull trend.

Market Continues Rally As Expected

The market shot up on Monday exactly as I predicted it would on Monday morning in my last report, taking the Dow into new highs. So far, the US market is right on track to continue this incredible bull run even though I would not be surprised to see a few sideways or small pullback days as investors take some short term profit off the table over the next few days. However, such a pullback, if it happens, should not take out Monday morning's opening price.

Looking inside, we do see some return to bonds as investors start to take short term profit and cash in on the high bond yields. This does not, however, suggest a full scale bearish exodus back into bonds for safety but rather some short term profit taking on equities for the sake of cashing in on the higher bond yields. Total equities put call ratio continue to turn in strong in favor of call options trading as bullish short term sentiment continues.

In a word, I still don't see any danger to the existing bull run and I don't see any reasons to doubt it either as me and my Master's Stock Options Picks Subscribers continue to ride on this for nice profits. We should also be taking profit on a couple of profitable positions soon, stay tuned for that.

For now, the market remains in all out bull trend.

New Bull Leg Starts

Once again proving that the market is more predictable than you think, I once again successfully called the bottom on this short term pullback (being one of the few who actually called it a short term pullback rather than the start of a crash) and identifying last week as the reversal week. This was what I said last Monday morning:

"So far, with economic data backing this up and technicals remaining strong, I don't see any reason why this won't be the kind of bull market we saw back in 2012 to 2015."
(Read last Monday's post here)

And indeed, the S&P500 closed a new historical high as the bull run continued after 6 weeks of moving largely sideways. With economic data and the S&P500 returning back to an all out bullish trend from a short term neutral trend, this week continues to be bullish inclined, with no heavyweight economic data release and with no real reasons to suspect the validity of such. Me and my Master's Stock  Options Picks Subscribers also benefited greatly from last week's move as our prepositioned call options on SPY and QQQ enters profitability along with a couple of new positions. If you have missed making any profits so far, come profit with me for just $1 now or learn how I pick these amazing picks here!

Indeed, as I said last week, I see no reason at all why this bull trend isn't going to last the next 1.5years... or more. For now, lets enjoy the current run!

For now, the market returns to short term, intermediate and primary bull trend.

US Market Weekly Outlook - Week 2 July 2017

I had to move back to my old blog here because there seems to be alot of issues with the new wordpress based blog on our own Optiontradingpedia.com site. So while we are resolving those issues, I will continue blogging here in my old blog instead.

So, last week's economic indicator went exactly as I expected once again with the Jobs Report on Friday turning out stronger than expected, resulting in a rally on Friday and an overall marginally positive weekly close. Yes, once again, Independence Week closed positive like it usually does.

Last Friday's Jobs Report was a really important one as it gave the market the reason to form a bottom on yet another short term correction as it bunny hops its way to new highs in this bull market. So far, with economic data backing this up and technicals remaining strong, I don't see any reason why this won't be the kind of bull market we saw back in 2012 to 2015. So far, this bull market has only been 1.5years running with lots of good fundamental support and no real reason for it to end at all.

Looking inside, bond yields rose steadily as investors continued to return to equities and total equities put call ratio dropped in favor of call options trading as traders start placing bets to upside. All in all, there is nothing I can find in both fundamentals and technicals to suggest that new highs isn't going to be made. That would really benefit me and my Master's Stock Options Picks Subscribers as my Star Trading System has prepositioned us with some really strong call options since the week before, just waiting for this breakout to happen. I hope you guys are profiting as well! If not, please profit with me for just $1 and stop missing opportunities!

For now, the market remains in short term neutral trend within an intermediate and primary bull trend.