Stock Market Analysis

Tuesday, May 29, 2018

CLIFF AHEAD!


Welcome back from the Memorial Day long weekend!

Memorial day always reminds me of something and no, its got nothing to do with American history since I am not American. Memorial day reminds me its another half a year once again. Yes, the Memorial day long weekend marks the final weekend of May and the start of June and that means we are already at the halfway point of 2018. Yes, something about 2018 makes time pass really fast.

Last week, after I said that the "next two days" is going to be dangerous, the next two days, which was Thursday and Friday turned out to be volatile sideways days with minimal day to day difference but huge intraday range indeed. Investors were clearly cautious ahead of the long weekend and that begs the question, are they going to continue that way this week?

Well, so far, the intermediate trend returning to a bullish stance still seem very much intact but the short term outlook seems a little shaky at this moment. The 2750 level seems to be exerting a bigger pressure on the minds of investors than I initially expected and now, it seems like investors are still selling on the green. As such, I would say the outlook this week is neutral uncertain because from here, investors could return and attempt to break the 2750 level or let the market breathe a little, pull back for a week before trying. Either way, I still do see a 2750 level break because theres no reason why it should not.

However, I am skeptical that the market is capable of breaking the January high this year before the real market crash hits.

Yes, if you guys still remember my overall outlook for the year, I expect this year to be the final bullish year before the real market crash (When most other analysts in the world expected 2018 itself to be that year), just like 2007. One thing about those years before a market crash is this: a new high made somewhere early in the year followed by a failure to challenge and break that level and then its down down down. I now believe the January high to be that unbreakable high that would lead on to the market crash in 2019. As such, I am expecting a somewhat slow crawl towards that level for the rest of the year. Yes, what I am saying is, the best times of 2018 is very likely... OVER.

It is once again the kind of market condition for the most nimble and sophisticated traders to play in. If you are not that kind of trader, you need to find help on how to profit under such conditions.

For now, the market remains in short term and intermediate term neutral trend within the framework of a primary bull trend.

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