Stock Market Analysis

Wednesday, September 25, 2013

5th Consecutive Down Day!

The Dow ended the day down 61 points despite better than expected Durable Goods Orders.

If an economic data as important as the Durable Goods Orders failed to lift the market after turning in better than expected, little else will. Nothing seems to be able to help the market from making its 5th straight down day today as investors continue to flee for the safety of bonds. Indeed, the past month has seen record breaking return to equities... the kind that precedes every market crash as the late herd tries to join into the now irresistible "bull" trend. The exact timing when professionals and institutions exit the market. Bond yields continue to be depressed across the board as investors continue to return to bonds and total equities put call ratio continue to be within the uncertain region. The market has survived several headwinds without a severe and significant pullback so far but the looming "Government Shutdown" seems to be doing it at last with investors fleeing before the weekend. Of course the US government isn't going to shutdown but investors who has held on through the Syrian headwind has made their money and would prefer to keep them safe in bonds for now.

This is the very first time the Dow has made 5 consecutive down days since May 2012 and with three peaks occurring so closely to each other after a strong year long bull run and the fact that there has not been a significant pullback so far, tells me that this might be the start of something dangerous. In fact, my Master's Stock Options Picks Service has been profiting left and right from bearish put options trades so far lately with my latest win being a 65.6% win on FIVE's 3 days retreat starting right where the Dow started its own retreat. Yes, this could be nasty... in fact, with the Hindenburg Omen and the year long rally, this is starting to look very much like the prelude to the 2008 crash... are you ready to profit from the downside? Check out my Master's Stock Options Picks Service now!

For now, the Dow turns short term bear trend within an intermediate neutral trend and primary bull trend.

Tuesday, September 03, 2013

Market Sideways Despite Better ISM Index

The Dow gained a measly 23 points today despite a much better than expected ISM Index.

ISM index turned in surprisingly well today, turning in 55.7 vs consensus of 53.8 and last month's reading of 55.4! Yes, ISM index is expected to turn in lower than last month but instead turned in higher! This led to a strong opening this morning with gains across the board. However, profit taking set in almost immediately, taking the market back down to almost par by the end of the day. Investors still rushed back into equities on the news, causing a surge in bond yields across the board and options traders rushed back into call options, depressing total equities put call ratio by a huge 0.4 from put inclination to call inclination. All of these screams only one thing... that investors and traders overreacted. Especially in the face of so much headwind, one cannot expect the US market to suddenly resume bullishness on a single economic data. In fact, things are looking more and more dangerous as signs of trouble continue to build up with the continued rally in Gold. Central banks are still accumulating the yellow metal the exact same way they do prior to all market crashes.

Even though it was supposed to be a positive day, the Dow merely made a sideways day like it did over the last three trading days. If a heavyweight number such as the ISM index fails to result in a significant movement, something truly is wrong and suspicious. In fact, looking at the technicals, it is very clear that the Dow is merely waiting for the 30MA to catch up a little before... it heads lower. Yes, everything from the technicals and fundamentals continue to put market inclination to downside. In fact, this is looking even more dangerous than ever and that one could truly profit greatly if prepositioned to do so. My Master's Stock Options Picks subscribers and me took a 170% profit with put options on MSFT and another 78% profit with put options on VZ today! Join my Master's Stock Options Picks Service and profit with me now!

For now, the Dow remains in short term bear trend within an intermediate neutral trend and primary bull trend.