Stock Market Analysis

Monday, June 25, 2018

Past the Halfway Point

Jason's US Market Analysis & Forecast - 25 June

Welcome to the final week of June 2018!

We will be crossing into the second half of 2018 very soon and it has certainly been a really rough year so far but fortunately a very predictable one (I know sooooo many people who would think otherwise hahaha). Yes, all year long the market has been predictable down to the daily movements just like my prediction for a negative close last Thursday! So who says the market is "unpredictable"?

Here was what I said last Thursday morning:

"...chances favor the market resuming its bullishness even though it would not be unusual to see today end up slightly negative as some skeptical bulls take quick profit before the really committed buying come in."

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Yes, and exactly it was so! The market closed negative on Thursday and rebounded on Friday, every step exactly how I predicted it. (Its not magic nor intuition. there's a method behind all these and I am still not too enthusiastic about launching that protege program I spoke of before just yet) So, how about the trade war thing again? Well, it has been going on and on for a long time and what happens each time? Market goes higher cos Trump always finds a way.

In fact, the market really isn't just about Trump or some trade argument. Its much more than that and everything else other than those twitter posts are supporting the current bull trend in both fundamentals and technicals, as such, I don't see why the market shouldn't resume upwards from here with the next major challenge being around the 2800 level.

However, one thing I don't like is how the Nasdaq 100 is behaving... struggling at all time high, it could actually return to the mean a little to a more reasonable level like what the S&P500 (which pretty much means the rest of the market) is at right now... it has just gotten a little ahead of itself and is REALLY overbought right now.

For now, the market remains in short term neutral trend within the framework of an intermediate and primary bull trend.

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