Stock Market Analysis

Sunday, April 30, 2006

Daily Market Comments 1 May 06 by

Markets were down last Friday. DJIA was down marginally by 0.14% and NASDAQ was down significantly by 0.95%. Markets dropped after realising that a pause in interest rate hikes do not mean a stop to interest rate hikes. However, DJIA is down so marginally that I doubt it has a lot to do with what Elder Green said.

Technically, we see NASDAQ down 0.95% in response to the surge on Thursday. This is a normal consolidation move after such a grand surge that it barely hold any surprises. NASDAQ continued back down to its 50MA where it was to continue its game plan. DJIA ended in a neutral day that made no difference to its immediate sideways direction. We will need a lot more market stimulus to move a market this heavy.

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Thursday, April 27, 2006

Daily Market Comments 28 Apr 06 by

Oil continue to correct with USO closing down $0.84 to $68.70 yesterday. This, coupled with the great economic data and earnings releases, gave a boost to the market with DJIA closing up 0.25% and NASDAQ closing up 0.49%. (I don't refer to the DJIA as "DOW" because "DOW" is a ticker for DOW Chemical Company) Looking at the rally in detail however shows that breath have been much less than ideal. All in all, the surge yesterday have been the result of the move of a smaller than ideal number of stocks. This creates doubt as to the sustainability of this surge tomorrow.
China's rising interest rates to curb inflations does help boost things a little for the US economy in the long run.

Technically, we see much more sense in the markets. NASDAQ continued the game plan we gave it last week bouncing off its 30MA nicely and DJIA continues to move sideways within a tight 11,400 and 11,300 channel. Overall, we are still in a neutral market.

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Wednesday, April 26, 2006

Daily Market Comments 27 Apr 06 by

It was an up day in the US markets yesterday with a slew of great data and earnings release. DJIA regained 0.63% and NASDAQ regained 0.14%. The Bush speech calling on measures to curb oil prices have seen further impact on oil prices yesterday seeing USO down 1.56% retracing a full week of gains.

Technically, we see DJIA and NASDAQ moving sideways. NASDAQ continued to struggle at its key 30MA Support level and DJIA moved sideways with the slew of economic data, making higher highs and higher lows. Both index are still moving according to game plan and we should expect to see NASDAQ to upside pretty soon.

Daily Market Comments 26 Apr 06 by

A Down day in the markets despite retreating oil prices and better than expected economic data. DJIA was down 0.47% and NASDAQ was down marginally by 0.13%. There is really no clear fundamental reason behind the drop yesterday except that inflationary fears are once again dominant with the favourable economic data. That being said, doesn't unfavourable economic data put a negative impact on the markets too? The markets might be more technical driven of late than fundamentally driven.

Technically, we see DJIA continuing its game plan of correcting down towards its 30MA hopefully for another rebound like we mentioned yesterday. NASDAQ continued into a neutral day around its 30MA support level too. There were no surprises to their behaviour and the next few days should see the markets to upside as both DJIA and NASDAQ rebounds off its 30MA.

Monday, April 24, 2006

Daily Market Comments 24 Apr 06 by

A neutral day in the markets with DJIA closing down marginally by 0.10% and NASDAQ by 0.40%. The bulls and bears struggled for supremacy whole day long in this stock market tug of war which ended up with no clear results. More earning reports are coming out mid week and job data end of the week. These events will definitely be the catalyst to move the market in a definite direction.

Technically, DJIA looks like it is continuing its up trend by heading for its 30MA again hoping for another successful bounce and NASDAQ continued to establish its new neutral price channel centered around 2340. Overall, no surprises from the markets with short term pressure to downside.

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Saturday, April 22, 2006

Daily Market Comments 23 Apr 06 by

The markets ended in a very unusual way last Friday. DJIA was up marginally by 0.04% and NASDAQ was down drastically by 0.83%. Even though I would think that the impact of rising oil prices are beginning to set in at last, that does not explain why DJIA hardly moved. Looking into NASDAQ, we see giants like DELL falling over 4% in a single day. This may not have a lot to do with Oil prices topping $75 a barrel afterall.

Looking back, it has been a really turbulent week all week with strong intraday price swings. DJIA followed through on its rally pretty nicely but NASDAQ fell right through and negated early gains. However, looking back technically, NASDAQ did play out its game plan of establishing a new neutral price channel so its drop last Friday was hardly surprising. What was surprising was its magnitude of move.

Next week will be a critical week to decide if the short term trend is up or down.

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Thursday, April 20, 2006

Daily Market Comments 21 Apr 06 by

DJIA continued its rally yesterday to close at its 6 years high! DJIA closed up 0.57% at 11,342.89. This stellar performance was put up despite oil prices hitting $74 a barrel yesterday. NASDAQ closed down marginally into a neutral day by 0.35%. This rally had a good follow through so far even though a consolidation now looks imminent.

Technically, although NASDAQ did not close higher, it formed a neutral day with a higher high and a higher low. This gave it an upwards bias that could continue if significant follow through is witnessed today. On the other hand, it is also at a good point to correct back down a little in order to form the second neutral channel that we talked about last week.

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Wednesday, April 19, 2006

Daily Market Comments 20 Apr 06 by

Markets continue to rally yesterday after a very mixed and uncertain early trading session. It was a weak but commendable follow up to the surge we saw 2 days ago. The bulls and the bears struggled hard deciding if the great earning reports and tamed inflation numbers are more significant than the record oil prices. DJIA was up marginally at 0.09%, closing where it opened and NASDAQ was up 0.63%.

Technically, both indexes looks ready to consolidate a little after 2 bullish sessions. However, if the rally is followed up today decisively, we might be witnessing another February rally coming up.

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Tuesday, April 18, 2006

Daily Market Comments 19 Apr 06 by

A big big up day yesterday at the markets. DJIA was up 1.76% and NASDAQ was up 1.95% with the feds hinting at the end of the rising interest rates. It was a broad based rally that looked a little suspicious as there was no confirmation of stopping interest rates hike afterall. Such a rally is rarely sustainable and must be followed up with considerable strength tomorrow.

Technically, the DJIA and NASDAQ has rallied on a similar move on January 2006. We shall set our eyes peeled on the next few days.

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Monday, April 17, 2006

Daily Market Comments 18 Apr 06 by

Crude oil closes above $70 at last due to growing fears tied to Iran's nuclear ambitions. This put a tremendous amount of pressure on the market and brought DJIA down 0.57% and NASDAQ down 0.64%.

Technically, DJIA continued to struggle around its 30MA with pressure to downside. NASDAQ fell back down to support at its 30MA too. Overall the sentiments are bearish in the markets but a slight rebound may follow with yesterday's drop.

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Friday, April 14, 2006

Daily Market Comments 15 Apr 06 by

There were no comments yesterday as it was Easter day. I hope all of you had a Blessed Day.

It was a nice and calm day before Easter on Thursday. Trading volume was way below average and it was hard to give substance to the moves we saw. DJIA was unchanged and NASDAQ was up 0.49% , extending year to date gains to more than 5%.

Technically, DJIA continued to struggle at its 30MA without surprises and NASDAQ turned up slightly opening up the possibility that indeed, our suspicion that it might start a new channel centered around 2,340 pts might just happen afterall.

Weekly Look Back...

It has certainly been a pretty calm week. DJIA was completely neutral struggling at its 30MA and NASDAQ continued to play out its technical game plan without surprise. This may also be because of a week that offers little stimulant to the markets. May this be the calm before the storm?

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Wednesday, April 12, 2006

Daily Market Comments 13 Apr 06 by

Another neutral day at the markets yesterday. DJIA was up 0.36% and NASDAQ was up 0.19%. This was the accumulation that we expected yesterday which played out without any surprises. Such accumulation is completely expected after the big drop the day before.

Technically, DJIA is still struggling about its 30MA even though it has been breached 2 days ago. An up day tomorrow will certainly bring it back up on the 30MA for more potential upside. NASDAQ corrected back down into its neutral price channel. Only one question remains, will it continue back down into its old channel centered around 2,280 pts or it will bounce off its 30MA right now and establish a new channel centered around 2,340 pts.

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Tuesday, April 11, 2006

Daily Market Comments 12 Apr 06 by

The markets went into broad based consolidation today with DJIA going down 0.46% and NASDAQ going down 0.98% on rising concerns on Iranian nuclear ambitions. There simply aren't very much positive factors to move the market to upside lately and with oil prices and fed rates giving pressure in the background, such a consolidation may not be surprising.

Technically, DJIA failed its struggle at its 30MA at last to close below it giving up any chance of a sustained rally. NASDAQ continued its game plan of correcting back down into its neutral price channel as we have expected it to. Markets are expected to accumulate for a while after such a big drop yesterday before it can decide where to go to in the near term.

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Monday, April 10, 2006

Daily Market Comments 11 Apr 06 by

A mixed market yesterday. A lack of real movers in the market have caused DJIA to end 0.19% up and NASDAQ, 0.25% down. This is definitely a neutral market stance.

Technically, DJIA continued to struggle at its 30MA ending close to its opening and NASDAQ continued its game plan to correct back down into its neutral price channel. Nothing have changed so far and the status quo from last week have been maintained.

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Friday, April 07, 2006

Daily Market Comments 8 Apr 06 by

The March employment report turned out better than expected and sparked off further inflationary fears. This may have led to DJIA correcting down 0.86% and NASDAQ 0.94% after a very brief morning rally. Even though these figures are completely expected, the reaction to it have been stronger than expected.

Technically, DJIA corrected back down to its 30MA and NASDAQ retreated from its highs. As many indicators suggested, DJIA may continue to struggle at its 30MA for a while before resuming its trend up. NASDAQ looks like it is ready to retreat back into its neutral price channel after negating its past 3 days of gain.

Weekly Look Back : Overall, it have been a neutral week for the markets as early week gains were negated on Friday to close near where it ended the week before. The key concern of the week had been rising oil prices hitting new highs, putting severe pressure on a market that was just starting to look bullish.

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Thursday, April 06, 2006

Daily Market Comments 7 Apr 06 by

A neutral day in the markets yesterday with DJIA down a mere 0.21% and NASDAQ up a mere 0.06%. There were no news moving the markets and the bulls and bears both had their time of the day. This may also be a calm before the release of employment data which could fire inflationary fears. In my humble opinion, the release of this data may not have a significant impact because no matter which way it goes, it will still be percieved as a negative event. It ought to have been factored into the markets by now.

Looking at the technicals, the status quo have been maintained with DJIA continuing its small up trend after bouncing off the 30MA lately and NASDAQ struggling at new highs.

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Wednesday, April 05, 2006

Daily Market Comments 6 Apr 06 by

The markets were up against rising oil prices yesterday in a bullish move that took the NASDAQ and the S&P to new 5 years highs! DJIA closed up 0.32% and NASDAQ closed up 0.61%.

The DJIA bounced off its 30MA and continued its move upwards yesterday going by the game plan we suggested the day before. What is exciting is the channel break by NASDAQ. Its move yesterday not only brought it to new 5 years highs but also took it out of the neutral price channel that it has been in for the last 4 months. It still needs some follow up today in order to make sure that move is sustainable. Overall, we are looking at a very bullish market condition here, technically speaking.

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Tuesday, April 04, 2006

Daily Market Comments 5 Apr 06 by

The markets were up moderately yesterday with the decline on the price of crude. DJIA was up 0.53% and NASDAQ was up 0.37%. Even though these rises may look moderate, it has important underlying meanings in the technical sense.

Looking at the technicals, DJIA's move yesterday have enabled it to bounced off the 30MA support level very nicely and that might just set the pace for another small rally if that move is followed up today. If it does, it will probably continue the wave like move upwards bouncing off the 30MA each time. The NASDAQ is still struggling to break out of its price channel. Its move yesterday is not significantly enough to set that pace going. We will have to observe what happens today.

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Monday, April 03, 2006

Daily Market Comments 4 Apr 06 by

An enthusiastic rally in the markets yesterday ended waned.

NASDAQ hit a high of 2,357.53 and DJIA hit a high of 11,247.87 yesterday morning. This little rally, if sustained to the end of the day, could set the pace for a DJIA rally and could help NASDAQ break out of its price channel. By the end of the trading day, the enthusiasm have died and markets ended mixed maintaining its status quo.

The sell off is largely due to profit taking as indexes hit multi year highs intraday and a lack of followup participation from the bull camp.

In my humble opinion, we should be seeing a definite pace setting move within these few days which will determine where the market will go to.

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Sunday, April 02, 2006

Daylight Saving Reminder -

Please be reminded that US markets will open one hour in advance from today onwards due to daylight saving.

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Saturday, April 01, 2006

Daily Market Comments 1 Apr 06

Another neutral day in the markets yesterday with NASDAQ losing a modest 0.4% and DJIA losing 0.37%. Both are insignificant changes. The price of oil seems to be testing $70 per barrel once again and have put a bearish overcast to the overall markets.

Looking at the technicals, the DJIA and S&P continues to hold at their respective 30MA support level and NASDAQ have started its consolidation respecting the neutral price channel it has been in so far. Nothing have changed yesterday versus the day before and the status quo have been maintained.

Weekly Look Back :

Looking at the week as a whole, it has been a mixed week which failed to commit the markets to a definite direction. Despite the number of positive and negative factors which are supposed to move the markets, we get a mixed close end of the week with DJIA closing down over a 150 points and NASDAQ gaining about 20 points versus close of last week. The DJIA is expected to continue its struggle at its 30MA next week with tendency to downside. The NASDAQ is expected to continue to consolidate into its neutral price channel. Overall, it seemed like this week's price action have been more technically rather than fundamentally driven.

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