Market Secretly Bullish?

Even though the market didn't close in a big positive day yesterday, it did trigger 3 different secret bullish signals! I revealed these in my report to paid subscribers today!

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Profit Taking Continues

No surprise this week so far as the US market continues profit taking exactly as I have predicted it to all week long so far. :)

Today doesn't look like an exception so I continue to expect a largely sideways market due to profit taking pressure within the framework of an extremely bullish market. This is also when, like I said yesterday in my report for paid subscribers, the time to be looking for great entries! Yes, me and my Master's Stock Options Picks subscribers took some great positions over the past two days that should do very well when the rally resumes! Are you prepositioned for this? If not, join me now for just $1!

For now, the US market continues to be in a short term neutral trend within the framework of an intermediate and primary bull trend.

US Market Outlook Week 5 September

Welcome to another brand new week in the US market!

Lets review what I said last Monday and what actually happened last week in the market. I expected last week to be a "bullish inclined profit taking week" and by the end of the week, the Nasdaq composite closed the week negative while both the Dow and the S&P500 both closed marginally positive. However, if you look at the daily chart, both the Dow and the S&P500 were also mostly negative last Thursday and Friday. In a way, that's a bullish inclined profit taking but just a tad softer than I would like to have seen.

With this profit taking still too soft to achieve what its supposed to, which is to set up better prices for a new leg upwards, I would think this week continues to be one which is largely uncertain and under profit taking pressure. A look at the bond yields and the total equities put call ratio both shows the kind of uncertainty that supports my outlook.

This week, the US market welcomes the third estimate for second quarter GDP on Thursday. Consensus is expecting a slightly stronger estimate than the last one, Going by the recent trend, beating consensus should not be a problem. However, this isn't a number that usually moves the market significantly like how the ISM index and the Jobs Report can unless an unexpectedly big surprise hits the number, something which is not a high probability event.

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For now, the US Market remains in all out bull trend.

Profit Taking Underway...

Following up from the dangerous signal that I mentioned in my report to paid subscribers yesterday morning, the US market ended its 9 days winning streak as predicted and closed negative. Here was what I said:

"There are 2 things I don't like about what I saw....bond yields jumped too much for a day...This kind of candle forming at new highs usually marks a short term peak...As such, I continue to think that we should see some profit taking from this point forward."

(I only post my reports publicly every other day and send the days in between only to paid subscribers through email. If you wish to receive today's report, please subscribe by hitting the yellow subscribe button on the right below my profile photo now!)

And right on the dot, the US market took profit and sold off yesterday!

So far, the profit taking looked very healthy. A good average negative day with no surprising volume. There was also no exuberance detected on both the bond yields and the total equities put call ratio. All in all, it was a very healthy negative day that doesn't look insensible or overdone. As such, I won't be surprised to see this profit taking go into Friday today. 

However, like I have said before, I do not expect this profit taking to turn into some kind of market crash. In fact, I don't even expect it to turn into an intermediate correction. So far, every continues to point towards just a few days correction before the rally resumes. 

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For now, the market remains in all out bull trend.

 

Market Forms Strong Profit Taking Signal!

Exactly as expected, FOMC announcement turned out to be a null event as the Feds kept interest rates steady as expected. However, the market formed a very dangerous profit taking signal! I explain this in today's report to paid subscribers, which has been sent. I only post my reports publicly every other day and send the days in between only to paid subscribers through email. If you wish to receive today's report, please subscribe by hitting the yellow subscribe button on the right below my profile photo now!

US Market On a Rocket!

So far this week, I have been wrong on my profit taking prediction for the week as the US market continues to make new historical highs every single day. Well, this is the kind of mistakes that I don't mind making as not only am I looking at my existing positions going higher, me and my Master's Stock Options Picks subscribers also took the opportunity to accumulate into call options on stocks that have not quite participated in this rally so far.

Yes, the US market truly is on a rocket right now with the Dow making its 8th straight positive day yesterday! The S&P500 also made a new historical high close yesterday despite going deeper into short term overbought territory. Interestingly, the Nasdaq doesn't seem to be participating in this rally that enthusiastically so far. In fact, no new highs have been made this week. Since the Nasdaq tends to lead the Dow and the S&P500, does that show that the profit taking I predicted is still very real?

Well, from the recent short term overbought signals triggered by the S&P500, the 8 straight bullish days by the Dow and the non participation from the Nasdaq composite as well as confirmation from a sudden drop in total equities put call ratio in favor of call options trading (yes, a sudden drop is always an opposite suggestion), I would say the profit taking is still very real and may start as early as today. However, I do expect this to be a fairly mild profit taking, probably just a couple of days to wear off the short term overbought condition before the market continues its rocket to the moon.

Yes, I continue to think that this is a primary bull trend that has at least another year to go as long as Trump remains in office and nothing changes.

Today is also FOMC announcement day.

However, since the feds are not expected to do anything with the rates today, I don't foresee any significant impact on the stock market apart from the usual uncertain trading behavior in the morning and perhaps for the rest of the day as well.

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For now, the market remains in all out bull trend.

Probable Profit Taking Week Ahead...

Welcome to week 4 of September!

Exactly as I have predicted last Monday morning, the US market resumed its bull trend (against soooooo many "experts" view hahaha I always have a good laugh how these people believe in what they think rather than really look at what the market is REALLY doing) and both the Dow and the S&P500 closed at new historical highs.

Of course I know you are going to ask, so, yes me and my Master's Stock Options Picks subscribers did make money from it because we prepositioned ourselves with call options the week before and added on to it on Monday itself as well.

So, is the rally going to continue into this week?

Well, I would like to see such strength continue of course but from the way the market has powered all the way into new highs without a single retreat, leading to the Dow closing the week last Friday with a very dangerous isolated hammer candlestick, the very same kind that started almost every intermediate correction over the past year, I am inclined to say that this week could be a bullish inclined profit taking week.

What I mean by bullish inclined profit taking is profit taking that faces alot of resistance trying to go down due to prevailing bullish sentiment, leading to a somewhere sideways slightly bearish movement that is packing energy to go back upwards. To me, this is a great time to seek opportunities to add on to our existing bullish positions rather than get out in fear.

With the economic numbers growing at a healthy pace, unemployment rate no where near a bubble situation, housing market no where near a bubble, bonds no where near a bubble, I don't see any reason why the market would crash any time in the near future. In fact, I continue to stand by my prediction that this rally have another year to go as long as Trump remains in office.

I hope you guys are enjoying this rally as much as I do. In fact, my Ride the Flow system continued to profit into this rally, pushing our overall account profit into 35% so far this year! Yes, this is one of my proudest options trading method but its so little known. It has the capability of making a constant profit no matter if its a sideways or a trending market with just one trade! Click here to read about it!

For now, the market remains in all out bull trend.

Quadruple Witching Friday

It's Quadruple Witching Friday today!

This means that a whole bunch of derivatives are expiring on the same day today, creating an unique market condition. Some says its a very volatile day for equities but the truth is, the unique condition is usually creates is one with very limited trading range with huge trading volume.Yes, this, happening on a Friday, makes it not that attractive a day to be putting on new positions as you are not likely to benefit from Friday's move itself and would have to hold a position through an uncertain weekend. Read more about Quadruple Witching.

Apart from Quadruple Witching day, today is also North Korea Missile Testing Day!

Yes, North Korea test fired its longest range missile ever in the morning, flying 3700km over Japan and landing in the ocean east of Japan. The last time such an event happened, the US market took a huge hit as fears surrounding the Guam threaten reemerges. However, since many missile tests ago, investors and traders have learned that such an impact on the US market usually last only a day or two and usually leads to a huge rally after that. Thats why there are people in the options community these days calling this the "North Korean Missile Play", using volatility strategies to benefit from such an event.

However, I do not see that the missile test would have the same effect it did on the market this time round.

Why is that so?

Well, its Quadruple Witching day! Its a day the witches win and the market trades largely range bound and I don't see that changing even for a North Korean Missile Test. In fact, I suspect many investors and traders are already desensitised to such an event and is unlikely to react to it. In fact, I suspect the amount of arbitrage that has been set up to take advantage of this event has already more or less reduced the impact on the market to negligible unless North Korea comes up with a serious threat. 

So far, the US market has performed pretty much exactly I expected it to every step of the way. The Dow broke and continued upwards from the 22K level, exactly as I have predicted and the next thing it should do is take a little profit taking, pull down, retest and establish the 22K as a support level before going further upwards. That should happen next week.

So, have a great weekend!

For now, the US Market remains in all out bull trend.

14 Sep Report Sent...

14 September Report Sent...

Today's daily report has been sent to all paid subscribers via email.

(I only publicly post my reports here every other day. Do you Wish To Be on the Paid Subscriber email list? Subscribe by hitting the yellow button on the right below my profile photo)

Dow Begins Real 22K Breakout

Exactly as I have predicted it on Monday morning, the US market reversed strongly with the Dow shot up and above the 22,000 points level in one fell sweep!

Did you guys manage to profit from that move like me and my Master's Stock Options Picks subscribers did? :) We were prepositioned for this move since last week and doubled up on it Monday morning for even more profit! If you missed making money from Monday's move, you really need to join me for just $1 at http://mastersoequity.com/ now!

Better than the rally on Monday, yesterday's positive follow up, even though it was not a huge positive day, it was an IMPORTANT one which confirms this to be the start of a new leg upwards rather than just another bull trap. It also closed the S&P500 at a new all time high of 2496 points and reversed the intermediate trend from neutral back up to bullish, making it an all out bullish market again.

Looking inside, all my favorite confirming indicators supported the day to be a truly positive day, bond yields rising as investors reallocate back to equities and total equities put call ratio continues to trade in favor of call options. A look at the volume of both the indices and their ETFs showed that the move was not overdone and therefore a very healthy one which puts all the odds to upside from here onwards.

This truly excited me and my subscribers as we accumulated into QQQ call options a week ahead of this move. We did get into SPY call options too but only for a single day profitable trade. All in all, this has been an extremely profitable season for us so far! 

I see the next level of uncertainty around the 22,500 level where we should experience some short term profit taking. Until then, lets enjoy the ride!

Also, those of you with options trading questions you would like me to answer, you could follow me on Quora at https://www.quora.com/profile/Jason-Ng-34 and request your questions to me. 

For now, the market returns to a short term, intermediate and primary bull trend.

Dow Challenges the 22K Level Again As I Have Predicted!

Yes! Exactly as I have predicted over the past week / month and exactly as I have said in yesterday's report, the Dow rebounded and challenged the 22K level and closed above it! That allowed me and my Master's Stock Options Picks subscribers to turn a profit on all the call options that we have been accumulating over the past week in preparation for this move!

So, what is going to happen next?

My analysis today for paid subscribers have been sent with my analysis on this issue! I only post my reports publicly every other day so if you wish to receive today's report, please subscribe by hitting the yellow subscribe button on the right below my profile photo now!

Market Outlook Week 3 September

Welcome to the 3rd week of September!

Wait! Why am I calling this the 3rd week of September when this is clearly but the 2nd full week of September? That's because, as an options trader, I count my weeks based on the regular options expiration calendar. Regular options expires every 3rd Friday of the month, as such this week is the week of the 3rd Friday of the month, hence the 3rd week of the month for me.

However, this Friday is a very special expiration Friday. It is not only the expiration Friday for regular equities options, but also  options on futures, index futures and Single Stock Futures as well. As such, there is a very special term for such a day, called "Quadruple Witching" day, a day which occurs only 4 times a year when multiple derivative instruments expire on the same day. (Read about Quadruple Witching)

So, what is the effect of such a day?

Well, when derivatives expire, they increase the trading of the underlying equities, spiking the trading volume in the market but they are not historically known to be market moving. In fact, its usually just a very narrow trading day with HUGE volume. As such, nothing to worry about.

Last week, the market took short term profits as I have expected and the market closed with the week negative. This left alot of investors and traders feeling very uncertain, as reflected in the bond yields that barely nudged and total equities put call ratio staying in the uncertain zone. However, this is actually a POSITIVE sign!

Why is that a positive?

Well, because the market did close a pretty negative week but investors and traders were only at most "uncertain" rather than all out bearish like real negative weeks. This makes the possibility of a rebound and a resuming of the bull run a very high probability event this week onwards. In fact, looking at the weekly charts, I really like how both the S&P500 and the Dow stopped right on top of their respective weekly 10MAs, which is usually a pattern that sets up a rebound.

We hope to see confirmation of this rebound today, Monday. In fact, the pre market futures are already pointing strongly positive. Even though that has little to no correlation to how the day will end, it does give a feel of the sentiment at this point in time and it definitely supports my outlook.

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For now, the market remains in short term and intermediate neutral trend within a primary bull trend.

Have a VERY profitable week ahead!

Secret Bearish Signal In The Market Yesterday?

Even though the US market closed largely sideways yesterday, some very strong bearish signals were formed! What are they and what are the possible implications?

My analysis today for paid subscribers have been sent with my analysis on this issue! I only post my reports publicly every other day so if you wish to receive today's report, please subscribe by hitting the yellow subscribe button on the right below my profile photo now!

Market Positive As Predicted...

The US market closed positive yesterday EXACTLY how I said it would in my report to paid subscribers yesterday. Here was what I said:

"All in all, yes, you know that's coming don't you, I think its overdone. There's no real reason for such a huge sell off on such enthusiasm and whenever there is such an overdone situation, it usually means the opposite."

 (I only publicly post my reports here every other day. Do you Wish To Be on the Paid Subscriber email list? Subscribe by hitting the yellow button on the right below my profile photo) 

In fact, my Master's Stock Options Picks Subscribers and I took the opportunity to take a nice 4% profit day trading on SPY call options yesterday, which is many times more than the usual 1% day trading target. (didn't make any money yesterday? join me for just $1 now!)

However, yesterday's positive close was really nothing more than just a glorified sideways day as it did not quite manage to turn sentiments positive. Both bond yields and total equities put call ratio continued to behave in a way as to reflect uncertainty rather than in support of a certain direction. 

However, with the Dow still making a series of rising bottoms and the fact that yesterday was indeed a positive day, continues to put the market inclination to upside rather than downside. In fact, pre-market futures are also pointing positive right now even though the direction of the market futures rarely tell how it would close for the day, its still something which gives us a little bit more information on how the sentiments are in the market.

For now, the market remains in short term bull trend within an intermediate neutral trend and primary bull trend.

 

US Market Tanked Yesterday... Market Crash?

The US market absolutely collapsed yesterday with the Dow tanking over 200 points! Is this the start of the very much feared market crash? My analysis today for paid subscribers have been sent with my analysis on this issue! I only post my reports publicly every other day so if you wish to receive today's report, please subscribe by hitting the yellow subscribe button on the right below my profile photo now!

US Market Week 2 Sep Outlook

Welcome back from the long weekend!

Last Friday's confluence of the two grandfather economic data; ISM index and Jobs Report, ended the market with a positive close as the ISM index turned in better than expected even though jobs were weaker than expected. Too bad the market didn't get the rocket fuel that it needed to make a really explosive move like I mentioned last Friday morning:

"This could truly be a huge day if both reports turn in better than expected just like how almost all the recent economic indicators have been! That would also give the market that much needed rocket fuel boost to truly reach up for the 22K level and beyond now that the market has proven resilient and has reversed out of the recent intermediate correction."

Yes, as such, I would expect the second part of my report last Friday morning to be the case now:

"However, if both reports turn out to be disappointing today, I would expect to see some profit taking on the strong move made over the past 3 days. In fact, looking at the bond yields and total equities put call ratio revealed that investors and traders are secretly pulling back ahead of today's numbers."

Yes, I would expect to see a couple of days of slight profit taking over these two days. This profit taking should actually be a rather healthy one which retests the Dow's 30MA for strength before eventually resuming the primary bull trend. Yes, the reversal signal is still intact as the Dow fall nicely back into its primary bull track, rebounding off its weekly 10MA, which is a critical support level. Nothing in the economic data seems to contradict the  primary bull trend either. Jobs report might have been disappointing last Friday, its still within its normal behavior during times of volatility.

However, me and my Master's Stock Options Picks Subscribers still took the chance to take profit on our call options on PLD last Friday, clocking us our 4th straight win, pushing our winning rate for the year up to an incredible 84.62% or 5.5 winners to 1 loser! Check out this trade and join me for just $1 here!

For now, the market remains in short term bull trend within an intermediate neutral trend and primary bull trend.

Confluence of the "Stars"! ISM and Jobs Report Day!

Its here at last! Something that commonly happens only once or twice a year. Something which I mentioned in Monday's report!

The day the ISM Index and Jobs Report are released on the same day!

This could truly be a huge day if both reports turn in better than expected just like how almost all the recent economic indicators have been! That would also give the market that much needed rocket fuel boost to truly reach up for the 22K level and beyond now that the market has proven resilient and has reversed out of the recent intermediate correction.

As I mentioned in my report to paid subscribers yesterday, the market formed a critical reversal confirmation signal the day before, leading to yesterday's extremely strong market. In fact, the QQQ tracking the Nasdaq100 hit a new historical high yesterday! Good news for me and my Master's Stock Options Picks subscribers as we bought QQQ call options 3 days ago in anticipation of this move and it paid off! (did you miss making money YET AGAIN?? Hesitate no more and join me for just $1 now! Click now!)

However, if both reports turn out to be disappointing today, I would expect to see some profit taking on the strong move made over the past 3 days. In fact, looking at the bond yields and total equities put call ratio revealed that investors and traders are secretly pulling back ahead of today's numbers. 

Jobs report will be released at 8:30am EST before market opens and ISM index at 10am EST after market opens. I will surely be watching for early reaction in the pre market futures upon release of the Jobs Report.

For now, the market turns a short term bull trend within an intermediate neutral trend within a primary bull trend.