Jobless Claims Beats!

The Dow continued moving sideways today, closing marginally higher by 12 points in yet another largely bearish day ending with huge support late in the session.

Fundamentals
Jobless claims turned in much lower than 450K at last today (see Stock Market Calendar), giving the session a huge bullish start. However, profit taking set in almost immediately, taking the market back down into the red. However, strength returned to the market in the afternoon session, ending the session largely sideways. It seems like we really need a good positive beat on tomorrow's GDP and/or Chicago PMI in order to break out of the current stalemate.

Technicals
Not too surprisingly, the Dow continued to move sideways today as investors once again held their ground at the April highs. However, one sign of concern has now appeared on my short term momentum indicators and that is the rapid loss of short term momentum these two days. Such a loss of moment as such a critical juncture can prove to be dangerous. In fact, if momentum does not pick up, investors might be convinced that the market isn't ready to make a new high and will therefore go into yet another intermediate correction like the one we saw back in August. Once again, its time to be nimble.

For now, the Dow remains in a short term neutral trend, intermediate bull trend within a primary bull trend.
My Market Analysis Sent Straight Into Your Email Daily For Only $5/Month! **My analysis will only be posted here once every other day.

Chart of Dow Made Using Telechart. Want Your Own Charting Software? Download FREE Now!

Consumer Confidence Beat Estimates

The Dow moved sideways today, closing marginally higher by 5 points, coming back from deep intraday losses.

Fundamentals
Market started out today deep in the red with the Dow going as low as -77 points as retail numbers before market open failed to impress. However, market rebounded off its low after Consumer Confidence turned in better than expected at 10:00am (See Stock Market Calendar). All in all, we still see a strong market that is ready to act on any good news and that is what a healthy bull trend needs. Tomorrow's Durable Goods order report would also be important in pointing the way ahead for the economy and beating estimates on that number would certainly help give this bull trend legs.

Technicals
Not surprisingly, the Dow continued to go sideways today as investors continue to be cautious around this strong resistance zone. Even though it was just another sideways day, short term momentum indicators are already picking up and pointing to upside strength and we should see a clean breakout soon if the strength holds up with economic data supporting over the next few days. However, since we are at such a strong resistance level, any disappointment on the economic data front could also cause a landslide. Its time to be nimble.

For now, the Dow remains in a short term neutral trend, intermediate bull trend within a primary bull trend.
My Market Analysis Sent Straight Into Your Email Daily For Only $5/Month! **My analysis will only be posted here once every other day.

Chart of Dow Made Using Telechart. Want Your Own Charting Software? Download FREE Now!

Leading Indicators and Philley Fed Inline...

The Dow moved sideways today, closing higher by 38 points as economic data turn in inline with expectations.

Fundamentals
Leading indicators and Philley Fed (see Stock Market Calendar) turn in inline with expectations today, spurring a short rally and the profit taking that I have mentioned a few days ago in the analysis given to paid subscribers. The market has been pricing in better than expected leading indicators and philley fed on the back of the better than expected Empire State Index last week and some profit taking should be expected no matter how today's numbers turned out.

Technicals
Even though the Dow held positive today, it is clear that the 11,000 points resistance zone is still promoting a great deal of profit taking and therefore resistance. Even though the Dow made a higher high and a higher low today versus yesterday, it still closed within the trading range of the past few days which makes it nothing more than another sideways day. The Dow also challenged the April highs intraday today at about 11,200 points before retreating which also prove that there is resistance in the market for making new highs under such weak economic conditions. Like I said before, the 11,000 points resistance zone, which is also the weekly 200MA resistance level, isn't going to give in without a significant fight. This is certainly not the time to be newly long.

For now, the Dow remains in a short term neutral trend, intermediate bull trend within a primary bull trend.
My Market Analysis Sent Straight Into Your Email Daily For Only $5/Month! **My analysis will only be posted here once every other day.

Chart of Dow Made Using Telechart. Want Your Own Charting Software? Download FREE Now!

Dow Retreats to 10,900

The Dow pulled back by a huge 165 points today on the back of mixed retail sales numbers.

Fundamentals
Retail sales numbers released today were mixed with both releases telling completely different stories. However, housing starts surprised to upside showing a recovery in the single family homes sector (see Stock Market Calendar). Amidst the mixed bag of economic data, investors took profit and sold off strongly on strong volume.

Technicals
The Dow did the retreat to 10,900 points that I mentioned two days ago. Even though the pullback was strong and scary, all it did was take the Dow off its short term overbought condition and has yet to threaten the current bull trend. However, we would like to see some strength tomorrow as evidence that the 10,900 points short term support is holding so that the Dow can go straight for the April high. However, if it doesn't, immediate support will be at its daily 30MA at about 10,800 points.

For now, the Dow remains in a short term bull trend, intermediate bull trend within a primary bull trend.
My Market Analysis Sent Straight Into Your Email Daily For Only $5/Month! **My analysis will only be posted here once every other day.

Chart of Dow Made Using Telechart. Want Your Own Charting Software? Download FREE Now!

Economic Numbers Continue Recovery

As I have mentioned last Sunday, the Dow's weekly 200MA level won't be a piece of cake breaking and indeed it was so. Even though there was significant strength last week, the Dow still went up only by 0.51% on a week on week basis.

Not surprisingly, last Friday's options expiration did lead to a more turbulent and higher trading volume day than usual, causing investors to overlook a much stronger than expected Empire State Index. The Empire State Index General Business Conditions index recovered sharply in October, turning in 15.73 versus 4.14 in September and consensus of 8.0. The Empire State Index along with the Philley fed (which will be released this week. See Stock Market Calendar) are considered to be leading indicators for the all important ISM index. Such a strong reading seems to suggest a much better ISM index next month and should get some investor's notice this week.

The only push factor now is the fact that the gravitational field of the Dow's weekly 200MA seems to be very strong and might not give up without a real fight. Like I said last week, the Dow could even pull back to about 10,900 before it muster enough energy for a decisive breakout.

For now, the Dow remains in a short term bull trend, intermediate bull trend within a primary bull trend.
My Market Analysis Sent Straight Into Your Email Daily For Only $5/Month! **My analysis will only be posted here once every other day.

Chart of Dow Made Using Telechart. Want Your Own Charting Software? Download FREE Now!

Jobless Claims Rebounds! Market Resilient!

The Dow moved sideways today, closing down by 1 point as jobless claims turned back above the 450K line.

Fundamentals
Jobless claims paid a short visit below the 450K line last week and came back with a vengeance today at 462K. Jobless claims have been threading along the 450K line all year and investors are definitely looking forward to seeing the number break below 450K. Yes, the US economy is still very soft, even the Feds admit it. However, lets not forget that the stock market is a discounting mechanism for future valuation and not a feedback mechanism for current valuations. As such, trying to line day to day economic numbers with what exactly is happening in the stock market typical ends in confusion for most people.

Technicals
Today's market action is totally technical in nature yet again. As I said in yesterday's commentary (which only paid subscribers would receive in their emails), the Dow is currently at the 11,000 resistance level along with the fact that it formed a significant up day on 13 Oct means a few sideways days along this level is to be expected. The Dow is currently in short term overbought condition as well, so I won't be surprised to see a short but healthy pullback perhaps to about 10,900 before breaking the 11,000 level decisively.

For now, the Dow remains in a short term bull trend, intermediate bull trend within a primary bull trend.
My Market Analysis Sent Straight Into Your Email Daily For Only $5/Month! **My analysis will only be posted here once every other day.

Chart of Dow Made Using Telechart. Want Your Own Charting Software? Download FREE Now!

Market Continues Sideways

The Dow made another sideways day today, gaining a marginal 10 points as sales data recovers.

Fundamentals
The slew of sales data today eased consumption fears as both the Store Sales and Redbook turned in positive. The Fed's inclination for further easing in the 2pm FOMC minutes release (see Stock Market Calendar), also helped keep the market positive through the end of the day from a largely mixed trading day. So far, the trend for economic data seems to be on the up and up once again, coming back from the past few months of down and downs. Investors seem to be trading cautiously today with some reallocation back into the safety of bonds, lifting long term bond yields. This sentiment is also echoed in the Total Equities Put Call Ratio as options traders made a big rush into put options, lifting the ratio significantly above par. Such aggressive put trading can only mean traders are taking note of the weekly 200MA resistance level and are beginning to take some action for protection.

Technicals
The Dow continued to move sideways around its 11,000 points zone which is where the weekly 200MA resistance level is right now. So far, the Dow is showing a lot of promise and potential energy. However, the weekly 200MA isn't a resistance level that is historically easy to break. It is more reasonable to expect the Dow to trade sideways along this level for a couple of weeks before a decisive breakout is possible. Well, at least this short bull run has enabled me to successfully make a grand 66% profit with call options on WYNN today. See how I did it at http://www.mastersoequity.com/MOE_latest_win.htm.

For now, the Dow remains in a short term bull trend, intermediate bull trend within a primary bull trend.
My Market Analysis Sent Straight Into Your Email Daily For Only $5/Month! **My analysis will only be posted here once every other day.

Chart of Dow Made Using Telechart. Want Your Own Charting Software? Download FREE Now!

Unemployment Rate Beats Expectation

The Dow gained 1.63% last week on a week on week basis as unemployment rate beat expectations in last week's Jobs Report.

Like I said last week, a positive surprise in the jobs report is the catalyst needed for this new bull trend to go the distance and that is exactly what we got last Friday.

Consensus is expecting an unemployment rate of 9.7% which turned in marginally better at 9.6%. This led to all major indices ending positive last Friday in a cautious trading day ahead of the weekend. This week, the week following the Jobs Report, is typically a digestion week. Investors who did not get in on the bandwagon last Friday on weekend fears might come in on Monday.

On the technical front, the Dow might face some pressure this week as it arrives at the 11,100 resistance level marked by the weekly 200MA. The Dow failed at the weekly 200MA level in April leading to an intermediate bear trend but this time, odds are stacked in favor of a topside breakout as economic data recovers and the market showing a good reversal pattern. However, we can expect the weekly 200MA to put up a good fight like it always does, so the breakout won't be easy.

For now, the Dow remains in a short term bull trend, intermediate bull trend within a primary bull trend.
My Market Analysis Sent Straight Into Your Email Daily For Only $5/Month! **My analysis will only be posted here once every other day.

Chart of Dow Made Using Telechart. Want Your Own Charting Software? Download FREE Now!

Market Rally Continues...

The Dow gained 193 points today pushed on by better than expected ISM services.

Fundamentals
US market staged a broad rally today as ISM services (see Stock Market Calendar) turned in better than expected. The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (commonly known as ISM services index) is a monthly index that tracks the non-manufacturing industries in the US while the ISM Manufacturing Index (commonly known as ISM Index) tracks manufacturing industries. Today's ISM services turned in at 53.2 versus consensus of 52 and while the ISM services index isn't known to be a strong market moving index, it certainly helped keep the current market bullishness going. Looking ahead, we have a barrage of jobs data coming up; ADP Employment tomorrow, Jobless Claims on Thursday and the all important jobs report on Friday. Investors were encouraged by better than expected jobless claims last week and is certainly anticipating positive surprise in some of these numbers this week as well.

Technicals
The Dow broke out of last week's sideways movement into new highs today as it draws nearer to the 11,100 points resistance level. The breakout today was strong and with good volume. Furthermore, it also left plenty of room to go to upside as it is still far from being technically short term overbought, giving it some odds of breaking the 11,100 points level when it reach there later this week. All in all, the current bull trend is progressing at an extremely healthy pace but do expect another couple of days of sideways movement as investors take some short term profit. All big up days are followed by a few small sideways days like we saw last week in order to keep the pace healthy and sustainable.

For now, the Dow remains in a short term bull trend, intermediate bull trend within a primary bull trend.
My Market Analysis Sent Straight Into Your Email Daily For Only $5/Month! **My analysis will only be posted here once every other day.

Chart of Dow Made Using Telechart. Want Your Own Charting Software? Download FREE Now!

Jobs Report Week

The Dow went completely sideways last week following the 24 Sep rally, netting -0.28% versus the week before.

Despite the ISM index coming in lowest since Nov 2009, major indices still closed higher in the spirit of continuing the current bull trend. Last week's Jobless Claims also turned in better than expected even though its still above the 450K mark.

More employment data this week with the Jobs Report on Friday (see Stock Market Calendar). A positive surprise on the unemployment rate would certainly keep this bull trend going. On the technical side, the Dow is slightly overbought on a weekly basis, making a clean break of the weekly 200MA resistance level at about 11,100 points slightly challenging. This was also the level which started the intermediate pullback back in April. As such, I would expect yet another short term turbulent period after the next leg up to 11,100.

For now, the Dow remains in a short term bull trend, intermediate bull trend within a primary bull trend.
My Market Analysis Sent Straight Into Your Email Daily For Only $5/Month! **My analysis will only be posted here once every other day.

Chart of Dow Made Using Telechart. Want Your Own Charting Software? Download FREE Now!