Stock Market Analysis

Monday, October 04, 2010

Jobs Report Week

The Dow went completely sideways last week following the 24 Sep rally, netting -0.28% versus the week before.

Despite the ISM index coming in lowest since Nov 2009, major indices still closed higher in the spirit of continuing the current bull trend. Last week's Jobless Claims also turned in better than expected even though its still above the 450K mark.

More employment data this week with the Jobs Report on Friday (see Stock Market Calendar). A positive surprise on the unemployment rate would certainly keep this bull trend going. On the technical side, the Dow is slightly overbought on a weekly basis, making a clean break of the weekly 200MA resistance level at about 11,100 points slightly challenging. This was also the level which started the intermediate pullback back in April. As such, I would expect yet another short term turbulent period after the next leg up to 11,100.

For now, the Dow remains in a short term bull trend, intermediate bull trend within a primary bull trend.
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