Stock Market Analysis

Sunday, October 10, 2010

Unemployment Rate Beats Expectation

The Dow gained 1.63% last week on a week on week basis as unemployment rate beat expectations in last week's Jobs Report.

Like I said last week, a positive surprise in the jobs report is the catalyst needed for this new bull trend to go the distance and that is exactly what we got last Friday.

Consensus is expecting an unemployment rate of 9.7% which turned in marginally better at 9.6%. This led to all major indices ending positive last Friday in a cautious trading day ahead of the weekend. This week, the week following the Jobs Report, is typically a digestion week. Investors who did not get in on the bandwagon last Friday on weekend fears might come in on Monday.

On the technical front, the Dow might face some pressure this week as it arrives at the 11,100 resistance level marked by the weekly 200MA. The Dow failed at the weekly 200MA level in April leading to an intermediate bear trend but this time, odds are stacked in favor of a topside breakout as economic data recovers and the market showing a good reversal pattern. However, we can expect the weekly 200MA to put up a good fight like it always does, so the breakout won't be easy.

For now, the Dow remains in a short term bull trend, intermediate bull trend within a primary bull trend.
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