Torn Between 2 Forces...

Market is torn between 2 equally strong forces today, resulting in the Dow closing almost unchanged. To the topside, the energy sector was the best performer today as it led the way up on new record oil. To the downside, financials led the way down as investors fail to see any further action taken to remedy the subprime crisis. Investors have not been this uncertain about the capital market and the economy in general since the huge slump of 2001. Would the 2001 bear market return? Shouldn't the internet and better investment education create a more efficient market? Certainly, the market has become a lot more efficient over the past 10 years. In fact, there are pockets of specific markets around the world that are already reporting weak form efficiency. Which is also why it is now so difficult to make the kind of explosive profits our forebearers used to make decades ago. But has it reached strong form efficiency? Definitely not. Which means that the chances of catastrophic, sudden ditches are a lot lower than decades ago but it may still happen on a lower magnitude. This is going to be a heavyweight week with the ISM index and Jobs report all coming up (see economic calendar). With the market already in all out bear mode, it is going to take a lot more than a couple of strong numbers to turn things around. In fact, many of the bears are going to sell on every positive number, continuing the bear trend no matter what. Even if the market would to pick up a little, it is just going to be a small dead cat bounce meant for the bears to short at better prices.

Bears' Week...

The Dow ditched by 4.19% or 496.18 points this week alone making a retreat of over 13% since this retreat started back in May. This is also the week which the critical March Low support level got mercilessly murdered. All these happened as oil ended its neutral trading range to breakout to topside. Oil doesn't seem close to getting defeated despite efforts taken by the US and the rest of the world. Strangely, every announcement of production boost or corrective action seemed to be counter balanced by an attack on a critical oil field somewhere... is there really coincidents in this world? I don't think so. Nothing is ever coincidental. Whatever and whoever are behind all these doesn't think the game is nearly satisfactory yet. Even more dismal are the funds pouring in after the high oil prices. People who are laughing their ways to the bank as the rest of the world moans in agony. If there is nothing more in the lives of these people then money making, then I fear the end of mankind may be near.

Oil Breaks Out!

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
After moving sideways for almost a month, oil staged a breakout today, shattering the hopes of all investors speculating in a turn around in oil. Oil broke the critical $140 resistance level today as more lip service by OPEC "predicted" oil would reach over $150 this year. OPEC's lip service today totally beat Uncle Ben's lip service yesterday. Like I said before, predictions always carry with it an element of self-fulfillment. What will determine the true course of oil? Reality. If oil inventory continues to be higher than expected like it just did, investors would see that the talks are not supported by reality at all. Well, this is going to be a drawn out battle and one that is definitely going to take the rest of the year.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
The Dow broke below the March Low support level as I have expected on strong volume as investors decide to keep the bears going. In fact, today's drop took all of the gains of 2007 away. The Intermediate and short term downtrend remains strong but do not be surprised to see a slight pull up before it goes any lower as this drop gets over extended. That is what we call a Bull Trap where the bulls get trapped in a fake rally. It is also what I always call a "Dead Cat Bounce".

Ben's New Approach...

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
The Feds held rates steady this time round as most analysts expected. Stocks actually rallied on that news before pulling back slightly to close positive by the end of the day. This intraday rally actually revealed the fact that investors are still negative to a rate hike and the late pull back revealed investors' uncertainty about tomorrow's GDP numbers (see economic calendar). What was really interesting was Uncle Ben's new approach to this situation... LIP SERVICE! Yes! Call it brilliant or call it revolutionary but he is obviously trying it as a new technique to controlling inflation. All he did today was to suggest that inflation and oil is going to come under control, hoping that traders catch on with it and react accordingly. In fact, oil did trade lower on that comment which shows its effectiveness. But will oil rebound tomorrow? Everytime oil trades down like this, it rebounds the very next day. What about the rate hikes? There was nothing in Uncle Ben's speech to actually suggest that rate hikes are imminent. So, what changed today? Actually, NOTHING! :) That was why Dennis Gartman said today that "The Fed Meeting Never Happened".

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Again, nothing really changed today. The Dow was totally sideways today as it forms a bearish continuation pattern at the doorstep of the March Low. Even on the technical front, it was as though today's market never opened. My takes yesterday still stands.

Uncertainty Ahead Of Fed Decision...

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Stocks and oil traded in a volatile, uncertain manner today as investors await the BIG Fed decision tomorrow (see economic calendar). Even though the Fed is widely expected to start hiking rates soon, would they do it this time round? the possible effect of such a rate hike remains highly uncertain. Could the rate hike move the US dollar up enough to bring down the speculative fever in oil? What would a rate hike when the economy is still struggling do to the economy and the market? Yes indeed, the Fed has not raised interest rates during an economic slump for longer than I have been trading and that certainly throws a new screw into the clockwork. Could that be a positive or a negative for the stock market? How would investors construe such an act? What if the Feds decided to keep rates stagnant? These are questions both professional and amateur traders are asking recently as consumer confidence sinks to a 16 years low today. Yes, you don't even need to know what consumer confidence index is to tell that a 16 year low is not a good thing. The US dollar slump has certainly caused havoc all over the world in terms of food and energy inflation, so, raising rates is certainly the way to go to solving a lot of problems. However, what would that do to an US economy that is right at the doorstep of an economic recovery? It would certainly bring down the strong export numbers we have seen in the GDP numbers so far. So much uncertainty which no econometric models could answer with any certainty.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
As a technical trader, I would certainly make my final decision only after receiving the real intent of investors through price charts after the Fed decision. For now, my charts are still telling me the same strong intermediate and short term downtrend, much like the one we saw back in Dec to January. The March low was also broken intraday today but isn't significant enough to justify and conclude a technical break of the March low, therefore, the March low support level is intact... at least for now. Well, there is a saying on wallstreet that "there is no such thing as a triple bottom". If the double bottom formation created by the January and March low isn't enough to rebound the market, a visit back down to these levels is more likely to be very bearish. This time round, it would coincide totally with the Fed decision. So, the chart is telling us that investors and traders are bearish and have been bearish about all that have happened over the past month and going by the principle of technical analysis, they are expected to continue to be bearish until something significant hit the wires.

Dow Technical Chart By Best FREE Charting Software, TC2007! Download Now!

Stocks Mixed As Oil Continues Range Trading...

Oil seems to be the only thing that is moving stocks all over the world these days. As oil continues its threatening range trading above the $130 mark, investors are torn between speculating a breakdown in oil price due to deteriorating fundamentals or a breakout in accordance to its long term uptrend as the US stock market closed mixed near the unchanged mark. Today's winner continues to be the energy sector while the techs and transport led the way down. Oil edged higher today within its tight trading range even as the US dollar gains on speculation that the Feds are going to hike rates on Wednesday (see economic calendar). Something is definitely brewing out there right now as the bad guys slowly take their profit out of oil while leaving the bill to the common oil traders. On the charts, today is a sideways day that changed nothing. Short to mid term trend continues to be downwards.

FOMC WEEK!

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Its FOMC week again as Uncle Ben and his crew are scheduled to announce their rate decision this coming Wednesday (see economic calendar). What does FOMC mean anyway? FOMC = Federal Open Market Committee. It is the top committee in the Federal reserve board that determines monetary policy in order to control inflation and reduce unemployment. Investors are not looking forward to a rate cut this time round but instead to a rate hike in order to push up the dollar and combat rising oil price. When interest rate goes up, the value of the dollar goes up as money base in the economy reduces, hence reducing the price per barrel of imported oil. That's the relationship between oil price and interest rate. Right now, combating high oil price is indeed the most important thing all over the world. China has raised energy prices and world leaders have met over the weekend to discuss how to combat high oil prices. All these goes to show that high oil price cannot go on forever as it gets too painful to bear. Sadly, human beings are usually driven to action only when the pain is too much.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
The Dow lost a whooping 3.78% last week alone and have retreated more than 6% since it peaked in May. The short term trend for the Dow continues to be down with the March lows as immediate support. Could the March lows coincide with a turnaround in oil price, thereby rebounding the stock market? It just might with all the talk and action against oil but so far, there are still no technical indications suggesting a turn around in oil price yet.


Dow Technical Chart By Best FREE Charting Software, TC2007! Download Now!

Quadruple Witching Day Tomorrow...

Stocks are slightly positive today as oil staged a huge retreat as voices against high oil prices arise from all over the world. In fact, China's petroleum and diesel hike tomorrow would be expected to decrease worldwide oil demand dramatically, resulting in the big retreat we see today. Energy stocks were also hit today, otherwise we would have seen a bigger gain in the Dow. The fundamentals for high oil is quickly eroding all over the world since the day I posted my long anti-high-oil post. So, is this the start of a significant decline in oil price? Probably back down to $100? There are still no indications yet as crude oil prices merely traded sideways amidst all these noises. In fact, technicals still support higher oil prices as the recent price action of crude oil merely formed a bullish continuation pattern and not a reversal pattern. Well, some of my good positions have been taken out unnecessarily in the recent turbulence as well, making it extremely tricky to formulate good stop loss policies. Read more about Quadruple Witching.

Tomorrow is Quadruple Witching day and is a day where we can all expect even more turbulence. Quadruple witching is the third Friday of March, June, September and December every year where index futures, index options, stock futures and stock options all expire on the same day. Such expiration would cause stocks and indices to be transacted at all kinds of high and low prices as options and futures of different strike prices are being exercised. For conservative traders like myself, we prefer to go on a long weekend instead. :)

Bearishness Ahead Of Leading Indicators...

Stocks are decidedly negative today ahead of tomorrow's leading indicators and Philly Fed (see economic calendar). Investors are hoping to see some signs of recovery in the leading indicators tomorrow. If the data come in disappointing tomorrow, we may see yet another period of multiples compression as the last of the bulls are defeated. In fact, the Dow formed a bearish continuation pattern today as it continues it way towards new lows. It is going to take a lot to turn this market around amidst weakening economic data and resilient oil prices.

Craziness Continues...

Despite crude oil and the US dollar going largely sideways, the energy sector and basic material sector were the only BIG winners while the rest of the market go dismal with the disappointing PPI and housing start numbers. Both greed and fear were given full play in recent markt conditions. Today's PPI number showed only one thing, that food and energy inflation has reached a point where it can no longer be ignored as some economists cheat themselves using only the "Core Rate" which is ex food and energy. Inflation is a severe problem all over the world right now that can only be resolved when crude oil prices are brought back to sanity again. Until that happens, the craziness can be expected to continue...

Oil Gone Crazy, Market Gone Crazy...

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Oil staged an early rally again today as the Saudi's pledge to increase oil production by 200,000 barrels a day barely offset the effect of a sudden drop in the US dollar. The Empire State Index also turned in worse than expected as it declined to -8.7% in June from -3.2% in May. The Empire State Index tracks manufacturing activity in New York and is gaining importance recently as it seemed to be a leading indicator for the heavy weight ISM index. In fact, we have seen the ISM index struggle over the past few months as the Empire State index went negative. The declining Empire State index once again put economic worry on the center stage but that didn't seem to stop the techs from staging a relatively huge rally. So, we have oil gone crazy and a market gone crazy too as a possible self defeating process starts filtering through the ranks as reality fails to catch up with expectations. How long will the last of the bulls stand? Until reality catches up and turns this into a self reinforcing process? Only time will tell.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
What a way to start a new week. The Dow closed sideways, failing to follow through on last Friday's rally. Such a failure totally negates last Friday's rally as a key reversal day and opens up the possibility of more downside to come. In fact, if the Dow doesn't get up significantly over the next 2 days, we could see a visit to the 12000 level. And yes, George Soros may have "predicted" this decline but my analysis are based on pure facts without suspicion of manipulation. "Predictions" always carries a sense of manipulation through the process of self-fulfilling prophesy. I never predict. I only analyse market action through objective indications and facts. So, i am not late at the party... I am just not the one who called the party together.

Financials Fail To Beat Oil...

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
The upgrade of the Financial sector made it the best performer today but it failed to hold up against the sudden rise in crude oil price after midday. This may also be investors' caution before tomorrow's CPI numbers, which are expected to turn in worse than expected. Crude oil price also came under immense pressure from the rising dollar and a strong $140 psychological resistance level. All in all, it was a stalemate day between oil and stocks as advancers also parred decliners. Tomorrow's CPI numbers will be released 1 hour before market opens (see economic calendar). There is no predicting what the numbers will be like but from the price data that I have obtained so far, it is more likely to support a rate hike scenario.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Another sideways day forming yet another bearish continuation pattern. Nothing in the charts suggest any possible reversal as volume continues to rise into the dip. The Dow is in short term oversold condition right now with immediate support at the March lows of around 11750. I don't see the market going straight down but it could play out a long term bearish inclined sideways channel like we saw back in 2004. Such a pattern makes it extremely difficult for either neutral options strategies or swing trading strategies to work out.

Intermediate Bear Trend... CONFIRMED...

Unfortunately, the 205 points dive in the Dow today confirmed the intermediate bear trend that was developing over the past 2 weeks. Right now, a revisit of the March and January lows look set to be in the near future. Opening up the time scale, we can clearly see that the market is in a period of turbulence that we have not seen since the great bear market of 2000 to 2003. 5 good bullish, low volatility, years have gone by and now, traders and investors are put through the mill again with economic challenges and worldwide issues that none have ever experienced. This period of time disillusioned and disheartened newbie traders most of all as nothing seemed to work. For veterans like us, this is a period of truth... those that remains after all these are through will be those that make it big in this industry. It is a trying period not only for traders and investors but for people all over the world. High energy and food prices have drove mankind to the edge of misery. Soaring food prices in many countries took millions of people by surprise as some of them could not even afford to eat anymore. Soaring energy prices doubled gasoline prices in some countries, resulting in soaring transportation costs, wiping out the last few cents of executives all over the world. So why the heck am I still not speculating on energy and commodities like some of you asked? Because I see the turmoil all over the world now and REFUSE to be one of those that pushes prices any higher! I REFUSE to be one of those whose world is only as big as the trading pit and does not go out into the world to see the state it is in now while money is being made on energy and commodities. Folks, we could be in for a period of worldwide catastrophy that no economic modelling have ever predicted. Driven by greed and scarcity, the powerful have now driven the common people's life to the edge of misery and will soon backfire upon themselves. Economics is a double edged sword... it could bring stability to the world when used by the right hands and it could create worldwide misery when used by the wrong hands. The Axis of Evil exists but not in the form of nations. The real Axis of Evil exists in the form of a few powerful individuals all over the world empowered with the tools of economics but driven purely by greed. No matter what trend the stock market is in, the trend in the world right now is headlong into misery and for me, even though I am powerless to change the world, I hope to bring awareness to this situation as we watch the stock market play out with our money from day to day.

With the market confirming an intermediate downtrend, you might want to start tightening up on your stop loss or start hedging some of your positions. In the US, you could easily hedge your stock positions using stock options. In other countries, you could as easily do it with warrants. Read my article on the Differences Between Warrants & Options.

Energy Sector Hammered...

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
There are 3 ways to bring the price of an imported good like crude oil down. 1; Reduction in demand, which has so far been pretty slow at correcting prices. 2; Increase in supply, which is equally hard as OPEC refuse to act. 3; Increase the value of your currency, which Uncle Ben so brilliantly did today by hinting at possible rate hikes in the near future. In fact, Fed fund futures are now pricing in a 100% chance of a 50 basis point hike during the next meeting! Crude oil prices took a hit on the news, bringing the energy and basic materials sector down big by over 2% each, ending the market mixed for the day. Looks like crude oil prices have reached the level of pain where action must be taken. Does it mean that crude oil would not go up further? Have we seen a top, at least for now? I can't say that in the few months past when Uncle Ben's cutting rates like its on discount but with rate hikes on the horizon, crude oil and all other commodities are certainly going to be under the most severe pressure they have faced in a while. So, rate hikes are going to bring oil and other commodity prices down, is it good for the economy? Shouldn't the Fed be on an expansionary policy of cutting rates and stimulating this weak economy now? Not really. This is where I think Uncle Ben is brilliant and worthy of being one of the best economist in the world. By hiking rates moderately, Uncle Ben would be able to arrest the headline inflation problem due to rising oil and commodities while still allowing the economy to grow at a slow and moderate pace through other stimulus actions. This is a fine balance which Alan Greenspan did a terrible job with. This also mean that this Friday's inflation numbers could be worse than expected, so, be prepared (see economic calendar). The market might be mixed now and could continue to experience more turbulence as the energy sector undergo a corrective storm but the long run looks healthy and under good hands.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
The market continue to move sideways today with no signs of being able to reverse this new intermediate bear trend. For now, market trends remain status quo.

Requiem...

The 200 points rise yesterday turned out to be a bull trap afterall as the Dow dived a grand 390 points on worse than expected unemployment number and crude oil rebounding to new highs. In fact, this is the biggest single day drop since February 2007! With oil nearing $140, there are speculations out there suggesting that oil could hit $160 by July. Seriously, the huge bungee jump in stock market today is due mainly to the surprising rebound in oil. The higher than usual unemployment rate was due to a surge in college graduate labor force that came a month earlier this year than is seasonally adjustable. Therefore, it is not so much a concern. The real concern now is the possible $160 oil. Economists have never imagined oil could go that high as their modelling went only up to $150. The last time the Dow dropped over 400 points back in February of 2007, stocks reversed into a 3 months rally. This time round, a reversal into a rally seemed extremely farfetched. The Dow could pullup a little as value investors pour in next week but it is not likely to result in trend reversal as this reversal into an intermediate bear trend seemed set to go on. Next week is going to be a relatively quiet week, giving investors time to really decide on their outlook and act on it.

What A Come Back!

The Dow was back up by 213.97 points today as crude oil rebounds on a sudden weakening of the dollar, bringing the energy and basic materials sectors through the roof. Energy and Basic Materials were the laggards yesterday turned leaders today. Bulls also got some encouragement from the Jobless claims and retail sales numbers today as they turned in better than expected. The jobless claims and employment numbers so far seemed to point towards a positive jobs report tomorrow (see economic calendar) and reinforced my economic recovery scenario as well. In fact, the bulls did a lot better than I expected today as I would deem a 100 points turn around over these 2 days to already be a strong and significant reversal of sentiments. So, how do we know that this is not just a Bear Rally? The fact is, we don't know yet. For now, the move is significant enough to qualify as either a bear rally or a key reversal as it is the biggest single day rise since April. What will tell them apart will be the action over the next few days. To qualify as a key reversal day, we need to see yet another significant follow over the next few days. If the Dow failed to follow up but retreat back down significantly, then it could simply be a bear rally. In technical analysis, its all about the significance of each move.

Market Mixed On Falling Oil...

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
The Energy sector led the way down today as oil retreats further into the $122 zone due to higher than expected gasoline and distillate inventory. The rest of the market was largely mixed as profit taking sentiments continue in the market, resulting in the Dow retreating by a slight 12.37%. Moody's talk of downgrading Ambac's credit rating does put a slight pressure on the financial sector but that has no leading effect on today's market action as the financials were down a mere 0.4%. The profit taking sentiment in the market started as the market went into techical overbought condition and realization that there may not be any more rate cuts to come. Such profit taking sentiments generally are short term and as long as oil continues to go down to a reasonable level, the market will continue its way up. However, how low is reasonable? A retreat back down into the level where it was back in March could be the level sufficient for the market to resume its rally as that was the level investors found confidence to push the Dow higher for a full 3 months. Recession talkers were disappointed today once again as the ISM services index continue to beat expectations, turning in a 51.7, indicating a growing service industry. When the ISM services index is above 50, it indicates expansion and a reading below 50 indicates contraction in the service industry. ADP non-farm payroll also turned in higher today, casting more optimism for the coming Jobs Report. With this much optimism in the market today, why wasn't the market up? That's because energy sector needs to fall back down to a level in line with the current crude oil expectation before steadying up a little for the market to go up with much lesser resistance. So far, the worst of the economic crisis is definitely over, the economy is recovering without a shadow of a doubt (albeit at a slow rate)and crude oil seemed to have reached a peak as it staged the biggest retreat since January (although it could still move higher due to geopolitical reasons). So far so good... nobody can predict the future but it does look a little rosier than it did a few months back.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
The Dow really staged an encouraging hold up today as it ended the day flat. Like I said, the bulls do have a couple of days to reverse this breakdown before traders catch on with the trend and enters a self reinforcing cycle of bringing prices lower. That point has not yet been reached and if the Dow could reverse up at least 100 points over the next few days, we might just see the Dow rebound. On a longer time frame, the Dow certainly looks set for an intermediate bear trend as a double top formation takes shape. It is still a very uncertain pattern technically at this point in time but it does look more inclined to downside.


Dow Technical Chart By Telechart2007! Download For FREE Now!

Energy Takes A HIT!

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Energy led the way down today as oil and other dollar based commodities retreat as the dollar rebounds. Uncle Ben certainly triggered the turning point in the dollar by his comments today but that has turned out to be a double edged sword. On the one hand, oil really found a strong reason for retreat and on the other hand, chances of further rate cuts are so slim that it almost cannot be seen. The result is the huge retreat in the energy sector and profit taking from rate cut speculators, netting a 100 points retreat in the Dow. So, is a strong dollar a good or bad thing? A strong dollar is definitely a good thing not only for the US but for the world economy as well. After the collaspe of the Bretton Woods system, the US dollar is the main standard the world economy is based on right now. A weaker dollar is going to result in food and energy inflation all over the world, its results are of course quite obvious by now. So, it is a good thing for long term, stable growth and as Uncle Ben said, the Fed policy is well positioned for moderate economic growth. After the rate cut speculators give way to the value investors over the next few days, we should start seeing the real effects of today's announcements and actions. Of course, all eyes are still on this Friday's Job Report (see economic calendar) for more indications of a recovering economy.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Market action these couple of days are certainly a lot more technical than fundamentally driven and the "Sell In May & Go Away" adage of the stock market once again stood the test of time this year as the Dow retreated right from the beginning of May. The Dow has broken its 12500 support on rising volume, suggesting that more and more traders are catching on with that old adage, creating a self reinforcing process. This self reinforcing and self defeating process is the true dynamic behind technical analysis. It has also broken the bottom of its bullish regression channel, suggesting a bearish channel break down, which again is extremely bearish. This bearishness is also reflected in the rising VIX and Put Call Index (see option trader hq). The new direction has been decided upon right now and the bulls have just one last chance within the next couple of days to make a strong breakout in order to nullify this breakdown, failing which, the March lows could be where the Dow will be heading for once again.

Get my bearish picks and prepare for the downturn!

Bears Strike Back!

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
ISM index showed a consistant advance coming in at 49.6 versus 48.6 in the previous month, suggesting that the worst is over and the economy is on the way to recovery. Crude oil also came under huge pressure as investigation commence against hedge funds manipulating crude oil prices. So why is the Dow still down 134.5 points? There seemed no clear explanation today except for the fact that investors do need to take some profit off the table after the Dow staged such a significant retreat at the top of a good 3 months rise. The next big thing this week will be this Friday's Jobs Report (see economic calendar). Again, the Job report is expected to support the economic recovery story.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
The Dow is right back onto its 12500 support level once again to the disappointment of many traders. 2 roads lead on from here... 1, Rebounds tomorrow and resumes uptrend. 2, Breaks support level and head for new lows. There are still considerable and measurable strength in the internals so the odds are still slightly in favor of the bulls. However, if you are still long stocks, it is time to at least consider hedging your position.

Heavy Weight Week Ahead...

The Dow closed the week almost totally stagnant last week amidst equally shaky crude oil price. Yes, Warren Buffett failed at his evil scheme of trying to bring the market down with his recessionary talk and proved that investors are smarter than what a few people think. The theme for the coming week is straight forward; Economic Recovery and Crude Oil Price. On the economic recovery front, investors are expecting the ISM index and the Jobs report (see economic calendar) to continue the economic recovery story and on the crude oil front, investors continue to hope for lower prices. Technically, crude oil is once again at a strong support level and if it continues it past behavior, it could close the week yet higher. However, that outlook is now pretty shaky as new supply arrives from the Saudi this month. And yes, energy conservation is not only for the sake of the stock market but for the sake of the world and all of mankind.