Stock Market Analysis

Wednesday, June 25, 2008

Ben's New Approach...

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
The Feds held rates steady this time round as most analysts expected. Stocks actually rallied on that news before pulling back slightly to close positive by the end of the day. This intraday rally actually revealed the fact that investors are still negative to a rate hike and the late pull back revealed investors' uncertainty about tomorrow's GDP numbers (see economic calendar). What was really interesting was Uncle Ben's new approach to this situation... LIP SERVICE! Yes! Call it brilliant or call it revolutionary but he is obviously trying it as a new technique to controlling inflation. All he did today was to suggest that inflation and oil is going to come under control, hoping that traders catch on with it and react accordingly. In fact, oil did trade lower on that comment which shows its effectiveness. But will oil rebound tomorrow? Everytime oil trades down like this, it rebounds the very next day. What about the rate hikes? There was nothing in Uncle Ben's speech to actually suggest that rate hikes are imminent. So, what changed today? Actually, NOTHING! :) That was why Dennis Gartman said today that "The Fed Meeting Never Happened".

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Again, nothing really changed today. The Dow was totally sideways today as it forms a bearish continuation pattern at the doorstep of the March Low. Even on the technical front, it was as though today's market never opened. My takes yesterday still stands.

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