Stock Market Analysis

Thursday, June 12, 2008

Financials Fail To Beat Oil...


FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
The upgrade of the Financial sector made it the best performer today but it failed to hold up against the sudden rise in crude oil price after midday. This may also be investors' caution before tomorrow's CPI numbers, which are expected to turn in worse than expected. Crude oil price also came under immense pressure from the rising dollar and a strong $140 psychological resistance level. All in all, it was a stalemate day between oil and stocks as advancers also parred decliners. Tomorrow's CPI numbers will be released 1 hour before market opens (see economic calendar). There is no predicting what the numbers will be like but from the price data that I have obtained so far, it is more likely to support a rate hike scenario.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Another sideways day forming yet another bearish continuation pattern. Nothing in the charts suggest any possible reversal as volume continues to rise into the dip. The Dow is in short term oversold condition right now with immediate support at the March lows of around 11750. I don't see the market going straight down but it could play out a long term bearish inclined sideways channel like we saw back in 2004. Such a pattern makes it extremely difficult for either neutral options strategies or swing trading strategies to work out.

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