CLIFF AHEAD!

Welcome back from the Memorial Day long weekend!

Memorial day always reminds me of something and no, its got nothing to do with American history since I am not American. Memorial day reminds me its another half a year once again. Yes, the Memorial day long weekend marks the final weekend of May and the start of June and that means we are already at the halfway point of 2018. Yes, something about 2018 makes time pass really fast.

Last week, after I said that the "next two days" is going to be dangerous, the next two days, which was Thursday and Friday turned out to be volatile sideways days with minimal day to day difference but huge intraday range indeed. Investors were clearly cautious ahead of the long weekend and that begs the question, are they going to continue that way this week?

Well, so far, the intermediate trend returning to a bullish stance still seem very much intact but the short term outlook seems a little shaky at this moment. The 2750 level seems to be exerting a bigger pressure on the minds of investors than I initially expected and now, it seems like investors are still selling on the green. As such, I would say the outlook this week is neutral uncertain because from here, investors could return and attempt to break the 2750 level or let the market breathe a little, pull back for a week before trying. Either way, I still do see a 2750 level break because theres no reason why it should not.

However, I am skeptical that the market is capable of breaking the January high this year before the real market crash hits.

Yes, if you guys still remember my overall outlook for the year, I expect this year to be the final bullish year before the real market crash (When most other analysts in the world expected 2018 itself to be that year), just like 2007. One thing about those years before a market crash is this: a new high made somewhere early in the year followed by a failure to challenge and break that level and then its down down down. I now believe the January high to be that unbreakable high that would lead on to the market crash in 2019. As such, I am expecting a somewhat slow crawl towards that level for the rest of the year. Yes, what I am saying is, the best times of 2018 is very likely... OVER.

It is once again the kind of market condition for the most nimble and sophisticated traders to play in. If you are not that kind of trader, you need to find help on how to profit under such conditions.

For now, the market remains in short term and intermediate term neutral trend within the framework of a primary bull trend.

DANGER AHEAD!

I received an email today telling me how he was "in complete awe" over my market analysis yesterday. This was what I said yesterday:

"All in all, even if the market opens negative today, I am more inclined to think that today is going to be a low open high close day"

(I only publicly post my reports here every few days. To receive my reports daily by email, please subscribe by clicking on the yellow button on the right beneath my profile photo.)

Being able to be as accurate as to correctly call a day a negative open and positive close day when the media yesterday was rattling away at how badly Trump supposedly screwed up. Of course, to be able to make such a call I give thanks to God who has guided me along this path for so long and given me tools and the right eye to tell what is going on and ultimately bring it to fruition. Apart from that, it has been my decade long practise not to be distracted by the news and stick only to my own research and experience and it has since paid off.

Even though I would normally say that this is when the market completes a turn around pattern and challenge new highs, I am more hesitant today. Why? Because yesterday's positive day was actually a bearish positive day with professionals rushing out of the market rather than in to it. Something about the 2750 level seems to be scaring people away and I won't be surprised to see yet another failure around this area to go back and retest the 200MA.

As such, the next two days is going to be very dangerous.

The next two days is going to determine if the market is ready to break this intermediate neutral framework for real or retreat and continue to bounce along within it. At this time, from how investors are reacting, I would say its a 50/50 chance and therefore a great time to take some short term bullish profit off the table if you have any.

For now, the market remains in short term and intermediate neutral trend within the framework of a primary bull trend.

I was WRONG!

Welcome to Week 4 of May!

So, I was wrong at last!

The US Market did not challenge the 2750 level last week like I expected it to. In fact, I was so grossly wrong that the market actually closed negative last week by 0.26%!

So, does that mean everything I said was wrong? Was the past 2 weeks just a fake out and the market is just ready to turn around, crash and take everything back leaving us looking like idiots?

Well, not really...

Even though last week was a negative week, it was what I call a "Bullish Negative Week". Why is that? Well, last week's pullback is the kind of typical pullbacks in every bull trend that not only isn't dangerous, but sets up better prices for investors to jump in on and therefore resulting in new highs! In fact, without such healthy pullbacks, the market could get dangerously overbought, resulting in investors not knowing when to jump in anymore. In fact, the way the S&P500 rest on the 10SMA last Friday, which is a powerful short term bullish support, I expect to see the market actually jump on Monday, completing a bullish continual pattern.

Lets look forward to a great week ahead!

For now, the market turns a short term neutral trend within the framework of an intermediate neutral and primary bull trend.

Bulls Return

Exactly on the dot and like a tame little puppy, the US market rallied yesterday exactly how I said it would yesterday morning in my report for paid subscribers. No surprises there at all (even though I can imagine the surprise of almost all the analysts in the world who disagreed with me yesterday).

 

Here was what I said yesterday:

"As such, even though I expected this week to be a dangerous negative week, I would think that we could see this turn around within these 2 days"

(I only publicly post my report here every 2 or 3 days. To receive my reports daily in your email, please subscribe by hitting the yellow button on the right below my profile photo)

More than just a positive close day, it was a truly bullish day with bond yields rising in response to to investors returning to equities and total equities trading in favor of call options. The S&P500 is also back down near to its 10SMA which is traditionally its strong short term bullish support especially when interpreted within the framework of a primary bull trend. All in all, I can't see any reason the market won't continue upwards from here and possibly test the 2750 level this week.

For now, the market returns to a short term bull trend within the framework of an intermediate neutral trend within a primary bull trend.

Bear Crossing Ahead...

Welcome to Week 3 of May!

This is also expiration week for the May options so me and my RTF students are all standing by to take profit on our strategy this coming Friday! NICE!

Last week was just pristine. US Market did everything exactly what I said and closed its strongest week since March. But, like I said last week, this is when it all gets DANGEROUS. (Yes, so if you are late to the party, this could be a terrible time to be newly long) Yes, the market is now short term overbought from last week's huge gains and it is time now for some profit taking. In fact, investors and options traders echoed that sentiment last Friday by depressing bond yields as investors rush back to the safety of bonds and options traders returning total equities put call ratio to par from a call options inclined trading posture, DESPITE it being a positive day last Friday.

In fact, the Nasdaq did close negative last Friday and the Nasdaq usually leads the way for the rest of the market. As such, I would be very cautious about going newly long this week. In fact, my subscribers and I took profit on our profitable call options on QQQ last Friday. If you are going to be newly long, you really want to buy in on the dips instead as the way ahead still looks very bullish.

Yes, I expect to see a short, perhaps 1 week pullback, before the bulls return again. Trump continues to work extremely important global trade ties like how he reached out to China today as economic data continues to improve. Everything still looks good to fulfill my positive 2018 but market crash 2019 prediction.

For now, the market remains in short term bull trend within the framework of a neutral intermediate trend and a primary bull trend.

End Of Run... For Now...

No surprises in the US market yesterday as the S&P500 continues to reach for that 2750 points level I predicted on Monday.

However, what I don't like is how the market has moved so much so quickly that it is once again on short term overbought condition. In fact, investors smelt this scent of overbought-ness yesterday and actually sold out of equities and returned to the safety of bonds, depressing bond yields as the late herd took over... late to the game as always. As such, this is once again not time to be newly long or newly on calls but a great time to take profit on your existing profitable longs and calls. If you are my student or subscriber, you would be taking profit with me today as well.

For those of you who have waited and waited and only thinking of getting in now that you see the bulls are "kinda real", you belong to the herd taking over from the clever money getting out now.
I am not saying the market is going to be negative today. No. In fact, chances are still good the S&P500 is going to try to reach the 2750 level. But, I won't bet on a very bullish next week.

As for me, its time to take profit and enjoy the weekend!

For now, the market remains in short term bull trend within the framework of an intermediate neutral and primary bull trend.

Bull Will Run... Why?

2 weeks ago, a lot of my subscribers acted against me and many even unsubscribed only because they think the market is going to crash while I kept going on the bullish side.

2 weeks later, one of them emailed me how he regretted betting against me and hope to get back in on my program. That's the reason why only a few win and most will lose. Because the opinions of the few always sound like nonsense to the many and the past 2 weeks completely proved my point.

Market continued upwards, following up on the rising bottom formation breakout of last week with all internal signs and fundamental economic indications supporting this bullish reversal. No surprise to me at all and yes, I profited from it. Why was I right and so many wrong? Because most people think they have to wait and see what Trump say or do before they know where the market is going.

WRONG.

The market is driven on MUCH MORE forces than just one man's words! That is how I have been able to CONSISTENTLY predict what the market is going to do down to daily trends! Because there are A LOT more to look at to know what investors and the stock market is going to do and in fact, I don't even follow what Trump says! LOL! Yes, I don't at all! One man does not influence the market the way the news have all of you believe. If that is so, the market would truly be unpredictable and I would not have been able to make a living over the past 16 years predicting and trading in the market!

So yes, the market is still on track upwards, even though the market closed marginally negative, its still bullish by all accounts and internal indications still point strongly bullish. As such, I don't see why the market won't challenge the 2750 points level like I predicted on Monday.

For now, the market remains in short term bull trend within an intermediate neutral trend and within the framework of a primary bull trend.

Smart Money To Reverse The Market!

The week so far has continued to be volatile! Even though I mentioned on Monday that the market should be ready to fly this week but having the FOMC announcement today and BIG FAT economic data like yesterday's ISM index and Friday's Jobs report, this week proved to be more volatile than I expected. However, that did not stop the market from being overall bullish the way I have expected it. This was especially apparent in yesterday's market action as the market reached down deep red before staging a huge come back during the final hour or so.

And what do market veterans call this kind of market action?

They call it the "Smart Money".

Smart money comes in towards the end of the day and food for the market comes in towards the beginning and yesterday was definitely textbook smart money pouring in. Smart money pouring in late, forming a huge hammer candle at this junction, almost rebounding once again off the 200MA intraday, is an EXTREMELY bullish signal that continues to support my bullish recovery outlook. This is especially so when yesterday's ISM index actually turned in worse than expected and even that didn't stop investors from getting back in on the better prices, which makes this recovery an even stronger one.

I have no doubt that from here, the market is going up and up.