Past the Halfway Point

Jason's US Market Analysis & Forecast - 25 June

Welcome to the final week of June 2018!

We will be crossing into the second half of 2018 very soon and it has certainly been a really rough year so far but fortunately a very predictable one (I know sooooo many people who would think otherwise hahaha). Yes, all year long the market has been predictable down to the daily movements just like my prediction for a negative close last Thursday! So who says the market is "unpredictable"?

Here was what I said last Thursday morning:

"...chances favor the market resuming its bullishness even though it would not be unusual to see today end up slightly negative as some skeptical bulls take quick profit before the really committed buying come in."

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Yes, and exactly it was so! The market closed negative on Thursday and rebounded on Friday, every step exactly how I predicted it. (Its not magic nor intuition. there's a method behind all these and I am still not too enthusiastic about launching that protege program I spoke of before just yet) So, how about the trade war thing again? Well, it has been going on and on for a long time and what happens each time? Market goes higher cos Trump always finds a way.

In fact, the market really isn't just about Trump or some trade argument. Its much more than that and everything else other than those twitter posts are supporting the current bull trend in both fundamentals and technicals, as such, I don't see why the market shouldn't resume upwards from here with the next major challenge being around the 2800 level.

However, one thing I don't like is how the Nasdaq 100 is behaving... struggling at all time high, it could actually return to the mean a little to a more reasonable level like what the S&P500 (which pretty much means the rest of the market) is at right now... it has just gotten a little ahead of itself and is REALLY overbought right now.

For now, the market remains in short term neutral trend within the framework of an intermediate and primary bull trend.

Danger Ahead...

Jason's US Market Analysis & Forecast - 18 June

Welcome to a new options trading cycle, the July cycle!

Like I said in my report last week, an options traders' month start from the 3rd Friday of one month to the 3rd Friday of the next month rather than follow the typical calendar month due to options expiration cycle. Last Friday was Quadruple Witching June, which is options expiration for June options. What a month June cycle has been! Market moved almost exactly how I expected it every step of the way and I made in total over $50,000 in profit in just one month. Amazing month and thank God for such a month!

Today starts July cycle for me, my students and my managed accounts clients. So, how might the month be?

Well, technicals and fundamentals have never been better in the world for a very long time, pushing the Nasdaq into new historical highs, leading the S&P500 along with it, still somewhere down there, a distance from new historical highs. This is when it gets VERY dangerous.

A sharp bearish divergence suggest short term overbought condition supported by the rounded top formation created by the S&P500 even though the Nasdaq has been making new highs. This relunctance to follow will ultimately drag the Nasdaq down with it to a more reasonable level which both indices can agree on. Its not data mining, its logic. When a small group of stocks seem to outperform day after day while 500 other stocks doesn't quite follow, those investors of that 100 stocks will start to have second thoughts and eventually sell off to join in with the mass. Its just common sense there.

As such, I won't be surprised to see a very very volatile week ahead as the market continues on the outlook that I have made all these while: slow volatile climb to the January high before everything goes to..... H?

For now, the market turns a short term neutral trend within the framework of an intermediate and primary bull trend.

Welcome To Week 3 June!

Welcome to Week 3 of June, the Quadruple Witching Week! (Read about what Quadruple Witching Means at http://www.optiontradingpedia.com/quadruple_witching.htm )

Had a really nice vacation weekend after last week's really profitable options trading due to having accurately called the market all week long. In fact, my managed accounts clients and I are looking forward to a nice 10% gain on our overall portfolio this coming Quadruple Witching Friday!

The US NK summit is taking place in Singapore right now and results of the summit has yet to be confirmed but so far, Trump seems to be positive about how. However, even though Trump may be positive about it, the fact that the market is at a short term overbought position where a short term retreat like how I suggested last week should take place along with investors being very cautious about how the summit plays out and this Wednesday's FOMC announcement and Friday's Quadruple Witching, do tend to put people on the defensive and the odds in favor of the short term pull back continuing this week.

My subscribers and I took profit on the profitable SPY call options last week and yes, I did make some good profit out of that as I have shown you guys last week and this week we focus on largely delta neutral trading to scrap some theta profit off the table no matter how the market and all of the uncertain events of the week turn out.

So, how might everything turn out eventually?

Everything will turn out well of course! How else would my continued bullish outlook be fullfilled? Indeed, with the open attitude of the NK Chairman, the FOMC having no surprising move to make and Quadruple witching days tending to be just small volatile days, there's nothing really to be worried about as we await the fulfilment of the return of the bulls. If its that obvious, tend why would investors be cautious? Well, they just might decide not to be too cautious! I won't be surprise to see the market resume bullishness sooner than expected, as such, my money would be on the resuming of the bulls rather than on the pullback as it just might already have ran its course.

For now, the market remains in all out bull trend.

Bulls Return!

Welcome to a new week in the US market!

What did I say last week about how Friday's economic indicators are going to turn out? For those of you who could not remember, here it is:

"Friday is going to be a big one with 2 of the most important economic indicators releasing on the same day! That may cause some cautiousness today causing the bulls to slow down a bit but from the looks of the trend of both indicators, odds are that they are going to turn out well and push the bulls ahead"

And it was EXACTLY so!

Both ISM index and jobs report last Friday, the 2 most important economic indicators every month, turned out better than expected (well, perhaps only I expected them to turn out this well), acting as the catalyst for the market to power upwards, thus completing the bullish reversal pattern of last week. The S&P500 gained 1.08% on Friday itself and with both the technicals and fundamentals lined up so strongly, as well as the US NK summit confirming once again, there are no reasons at all I can find to doubt this new bull leg! In fact, the Nasdaq has already reversed its intermediate trend from neutral back up to bullish and from the way it usually leads the way for the rest of the market, I don't see why the S&P500 won't be joining in soon!

Enjoy the bulls while it last!

For now, the market turns a short term bull trend within the framework of an intermediate neutral trend and primary bull trend.

CLIFF AHEAD!

Welcome back from the Memorial Day long weekend!

Memorial day always reminds me of something and no, its got nothing to do with American history since I am not American. Memorial day reminds me its another half a year once again. Yes, the Memorial day long weekend marks the final weekend of May and the start of June and that means we are already at the halfway point of 2018. Yes, something about 2018 makes time pass really fast.

Last week, after I said that the "next two days" is going to be dangerous, the next two days, which was Thursday and Friday turned out to be volatile sideways days with minimal day to day difference but huge intraday range indeed. Investors were clearly cautious ahead of the long weekend and that begs the question, are they going to continue that way this week?

Well, so far, the intermediate trend returning to a bullish stance still seem very much intact but the short term outlook seems a little shaky at this moment. The 2750 level seems to be exerting a bigger pressure on the minds of investors than I initially expected and now, it seems like investors are still selling on the green. As such, I would say the outlook this week is neutral uncertain because from here, investors could return and attempt to break the 2750 level or let the market breathe a little, pull back for a week before trying. Either way, I still do see a 2750 level break because theres no reason why it should not.

However, I am skeptical that the market is capable of breaking the January high this year before the real market crash hits.

Yes, if you guys still remember my overall outlook for the year, I expect this year to be the final bullish year before the real market crash (When most other analysts in the world expected 2018 itself to be that year), just like 2007. One thing about those years before a market crash is this: a new high made somewhere early in the year followed by a failure to challenge and break that level and then its down down down. I now believe the January high to be that unbreakable high that would lead on to the market crash in 2019. As such, I am expecting a somewhat slow crawl towards that level for the rest of the year. Yes, what I am saying is, the best times of 2018 is very likely... OVER.

It is once again the kind of market condition for the most nimble and sophisticated traders to play in. If you are not that kind of trader, you need to find help on how to profit under such conditions.

For now, the market remains in short term and intermediate term neutral trend within the framework of a primary bull trend.

DANGER AHEAD!

I received an email today telling me how he was "in complete awe" over my market analysis yesterday. This was what I said yesterday:

"All in all, even if the market opens negative today, I am more inclined to think that today is going to be a low open high close day"

(I only publicly post my reports here every few days. To receive my reports daily by email, please subscribe by clicking on the yellow button on the right beneath my profile photo.)

Being able to be as accurate as to correctly call a day a negative open and positive close day when the media yesterday was rattling away at how badly Trump supposedly screwed up. Of course, to be able to make such a call I give thanks to God who has guided me along this path for so long and given me tools and the right eye to tell what is going on and ultimately bring it to fruition. Apart from that, it has been my decade long practise not to be distracted by the news and stick only to my own research and experience and it has since paid off.

Even though I would normally say that this is when the market completes a turn around pattern and challenge new highs, I am more hesitant today. Why? Because yesterday's positive day was actually a bearish positive day with professionals rushing out of the market rather than in to it. Something about the 2750 level seems to be scaring people away and I won't be surprised to see yet another failure around this area to go back and retest the 200MA.

As such, the next two days is going to be very dangerous.

The next two days is going to determine if the market is ready to break this intermediate neutral framework for real or retreat and continue to bounce along within it. At this time, from how investors are reacting, I would say its a 50/50 chance and therefore a great time to take some short term bullish profit off the table if you have any.

For now, the market remains in short term and intermediate neutral trend within the framework of a primary bull trend.

I was WRONG!

Welcome to Week 4 of May!

So, I was wrong at last!

The US Market did not challenge the 2750 level last week like I expected it to. In fact, I was so grossly wrong that the market actually closed negative last week by 0.26%!

So, does that mean everything I said was wrong? Was the past 2 weeks just a fake out and the market is just ready to turn around, crash and take everything back leaving us looking like idiots?

Well, not really...

Even though last week was a negative week, it was what I call a "Bullish Negative Week". Why is that? Well, last week's pullback is the kind of typical pullbacks in every bull trend that not only isn't dangerous, but sets up better prices for investors to jump in on and therefore resulting in new highs! In fact, without such healthy pullbacks, the market could get dangerously overbought, resulting in investors not knowing when to jump in anymore. In fact, the way the S&P500 rest on the 10SMA last Friday, which is a powerful short term bullish support, I expect to see the market actually jump on Monday, completing a bullish continual pattern.

Lets look forward to a great week ahead!

For now, the market turns a short term neutral trend within the framework of an intermediate neutral and primary bull trend.