Past the Halfway Point

Jason's US Market Analysis & Forecast - 25 June

Welcome to the final week of June 2018!

We will be crossing into the second half of 2018 very soon and it has certainly been a really rough year so far but fortunately a very predictable one (I know sooooo many people who would think otherwise hahaha). Yes, all year long the market has been predictable down to the daily movements just like my prediction for a negative close last Thursday! So who says the market is "unpredictable"?

Here was what I said last Thursday morning:

"...chances favor the market resuming its bullishness even though it would not be unusual to see today end up slightly negative as some skeptical bulls take quick profit before the really committed buying come in."

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Yes, and exactly it was so! The market closed negative on Thursday and rebounded on Friday, every step exactly how I predicted it. (Its not magic nor intuition. there's a method behind all these and I am still not too enthusiastic about launching that protege program I spoke of before just yet) So, how about the trade war thing again? Well, it has been going on and on for a long time and what happens each time? Market goes higher cos Trump always finds a way.

In fact, the market really isn't just about Trump or some trade argument. Its much more than that and everything else other than those twitter posts are supporting the current bull trend in both fundamentals and technicals, as such, I don't see why the market shouldn't resume upwards from here with the next major challenge being around the 2800 level.

However, one thing I don't like is how the Nasdaq 100 is behaving... struggling at all time high, it could actually return to the mean a little to a more reasonable level like what the S&P500 (which pretty much means the rest of the market) is at right now... it has just gotten a little ahead of itself and is REALLY overbought right now.

For now, the market remains in short term neutral trend within the framework of an intermediate and primary bull trend.

Danger Ahead...

Jason's US Market Analysis & Forecast - 18 June

Welcome to a new options trading cycle, the July cycle!

Like I said in my report last week, an options traders' month start from the 3rd Friday of one month to the 3rd Friday of the next month rather than follow the typical calendar month due to options expiration cycle. Last Friday was Quadruple Witching June, which is options expiration for June options. What a month June cycle has been! Market moved almost exactly how I expected it every step of the way and I made in total over $50,000 in profit in just one month. Amazing month and thank God for such a month!

Today starts July cycle for me, my students and my managed accounts clients. So, how might the month be?

Well, technicals and fundamentals have never been better in the world for a very long time, pushing the Nasdaq into new historical highs, leading the S&P500 along with it, still somewhere down there, a distance from new historical highs. This is when it gets VERY dangerous.

A sharp bearish divergence suggest short term overbought condition supported by the rounded top formation created by the S&P500 even though the Nasdaq has been making new highs. This relunctance to follow will ultimately drag the Nasdaq down with it to a more reasonable level which both indices can agree on. Its not data mining, its logic. When a small group of stocks seem to outperform day after day while 500 other stocks doesn't quite follow, those investors of that 100 stocks will start to have second thoughts and eventually sell off to join in with the mass. Its just common sense there.

As such, I won't be surprised to see a very very volatile week ahead as the market continues on the outlook that I have made all these while: slow volatile climb to the January high before everything goes to..... H?

For now, the market turns a short term neutral trend within the framework of an intermediate and primary bull trend.

Welcome To Week 3 June!

Welcome to Week 3 of June, the Quadruple Witching Week! (Read about what Quadruple Witching Means at http://www.optiontradingpedia.com/quadruple_witching.htm )

Had a really nice vacation weekend after last week's really profitable options trading due to having accurately called the market all week long. In fact, my managed accounts clients and I are looking forward to a nice 10% gain on our overall portfolio this coming Quadruple Witching Friday!

The US NK summit is taking place in Singapore right now and results of the summit has yet to be confirmed but so far, Trump seems to be positive about how. However, even though Trump may be positive about it, the fact that the market is at a short term overbought position where a short term retreat like how I suggested last week should take place along with investors being very cautious about how the summit plays out and this Wednesday's FOMC announcement and Friday's Quadruple Witching, do tend to put people on the defensive and the odds in favor of the short term pull back continuing this week.

My subscribers and I took profit on the profitable SPY call options last week and yes, I did make some good profit out of that as I have shown you guys last week and this week we focus on largely delta neutral trading to scrap some theta profit off the table no matter how the market and all of the uncertain events of the week turn out.

So, how might everything turn out eventually?

Everything will turn out well of course! How else would my continued bullish outlook be fullfilled? Indeed, with the open attitude of the NK Chairman, the FOMC having no surprising move to make and Quadruple witching days tending to be just small volatile days, there's nothing really to be worried about as we await the fulfilment of the return of the bulls. If its that obvious, tend why would investors be cautious? Well, they just might decide not to be too cautious! I won't be surprise to see the market resume bullishness sooner than expected, as such, my money would be on the resuming of the bulls rather than on the pullback as it just might already have ran its course.

For now, the market remains in all out bull trend.

Bulls Return!

Welcome to a new week in the US market!

What did I say last week about how Friday's economic indicators are going to turn out? For those of you who could not remember, here it is:

"Friday is going to be a big one with 2 of the most important economic indicators releasing on the same day! That may cause some cautiousness today causing the bulls to slow down a bit but from the looks of the trend of both indicators, odds are that they are going to turn out well and push the bulls ahead"

And it was EXACTLY so!

Both ISM index and jobs report last Friday, the 2 most important economic indicators every month, turned out better than expected (well, perhaps only I expected them to turn out this well), acting as the catalyst for the market to power upwards, thus completing the bullish reversal pattern of last week. The S&P500 gained 1.08% on Friday itself and with both the technicals and fundamentals lined up so strongly, as well as the US NK summit confirming once again, there are no reasons at all I can find to doubt this new bull leg! In fact, the Nasdaq has already reversed its intermediate trend from neutral back up to bullish and from the way it usually leads the way for the rest of the market, I don't see why the S&P500 won't be joining in soon!

Enjoy the bulls while it last!

For now, the market turns a short term bull trend within the framework of an intermediate neutral trend and primary bull trend.