Stock Market Analysis

Thursday, August 31, 2006

Daily US Markets Comments 01 Sep 2006 by MastersoEquity.com

FUNDAMENTALS
Iran has refused to stop uranian enrichment program as expected and no impact was seen in the markets. Markets traded flat along with a flat oil price. Consumer confidence didn't seem to move the markets very much. I suspect the markets could be technically driven at least for these few days.

TECHNICALS
Markets continue to trade sideways as it struggles against key short term resistance levels. Sentiments in the markets continue to be more bullish as they make higher lows against 2 days ago. With the trend line continuing to rise steeply, we should see a break pretty soon.

Daily US Market Comments 31 Aug 2006 by MastersoEquity.com

FUNDAMENTALS
Markets continue to drive upwards as oil prices break below $69.00. Even though oil prices are back up by the end of the day, it is still a very significant event oil prices break $70 and $69 all within just 2 days. This puts a definite bearish stance on the oil prices. The Iranian crisis is not likely to affect oil prices as oil prices are determined by the cartel and Iran is not the only country from whom we can buy oil.

TECHNICALS
Markets ended up in the most significant up day since 16 Aug. The 2 weeks high for both the Dow and NASDAQ were broken intraday indicating strength in the market. Even though the markets did not manage to shake off much of its overbought condition, I do see that there are still a lot more upside to this market should the market break the short term resistance level that we are at now. With the market trend lines increasingly steeper and the channel lines increasely flatter, that break might just happen within these couple of days.

Tuesday, August 29, 2006

Daily US Market Comments 30 Aug 2006 by MastersoEquity.com

FUNDAMENTALS
What started out as a pretty gloomy day due to uncertainties in the fed's next move and the strengthening of hurricane Ernesto ended up in an astonishing up day in the end. Eventhough markets did not move up significantly yesterday, its recovery from yesterday's lows were indeed encouraging. This is probably due to oil prices breaking below the $70 mark at last. This along with another favorable Fed release in September could really set the tempo for a good rally.

TECHNICALS
Markets continued to move sideways yesterday. Even though the end of day rally looks pretty promising, the short term resistance levels continue to hold strong. On the other hand, the short term support level seems to hold very strong too. With such a strong support, I am optimistic on a break to upside at least for the short term.


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Monday, August 28, 2006

Daily US Market Comments 29 Aug 2006 by MastersoEquity.com

FUNDAMENTALS
Markets rallied on falling oil prices and the fact that Ernesto is not going to be hitting Mexico afterall. Nothing more can be said for yesterday's rally as it is a rally that lacked enthusiasm and volume. My conclusion? A lackluster up day that may not necessarily progress into a rally.

TECHNICALS
The markets bounced up off the lows of 16 Aug as we have anticipated for so long. Is this then the beginning of a rally? Not yet. This is still a sideways market disguised as a rally. Markets had merely bobbed their heads up for a breather and back where they were last week. Unless we see a significant follow up today, the markets might laspe into its sideways movement once again.

Daily US Market Comments 28 Aug 2006 by MastersEquity.com

FUNDAMENTALS
A lack of any real market moving news have resulted in the recent sideways movement in the markets. The gloomy upcoming September Fed release may have put a temporary cap on the market until we see some definite news that will keep the feds at bay.

TECHNICALS
Markets continue to move sideways as it continues to shed its overbought condition. With the 16 Aug low (something I have been talking about for weeks) holding strong, the markets may continue to trade sideways for a while until a definite market mover occurs.

Thursday, August 24, 2006

Daily US Market Comments 25 Aug 2006 by MastersoEquity.com

FUNDAMENTALS
Another day in lobotomy as the markets opened and closed mixed. Neither the rising oil price nor the decline in durable orders explained the way the markets behaved yesterday. Looks like technicals are beginning to take over the markets.

TECHNICALS
Markets continued sideways with declining volume. Bulls and Bears are almost equally matched with the 16 Aug low still holding its grounds. Markets can still go either way from here with slight inclination to upside.


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Wednesday, August 23, 2006

Daily US Market Comments 24 Aug 2006 by MastersoEquity.com

FUNDAMENTALS
Markets went into the deepest one day drop in over a week as the Fed comment about possible rate hikes continue to sink in yesterday. Even though it was a pretty broadbased move, the drop was not one that we would expect to see in a real all out correction. That being said, the Fed comment along with rising inventory rate does put a bearish over cast on the market.

TECHNICALS
Markets continue to correct yesterday but by the end of the day, the critical low of 16 Aug that I have been talking about all week still holds strong. Markets continue to wear off its overbought sentiments alowly and as long as the 16 Aug low holds its ground, we should see more upside to come.


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Tuesday, August 22, 2006

Daily US Market Comments 23 Aug 2006 by MastersoEquity.com

FUNDAMENTALS
The Feds have spoken again... yes, another possible rate hike coming up during the next Fed meeting. This is hardly a surprising news and have only little impact on the market as the markets continue sideways amidst global uncertainties.

TECHNICALS
Markets continue to move sideways in a healthy pullback pattern. Even though the markets ended lower yesterday, it was considerably stronger than the day before as it challenges the 3 day highs. The low of 16 Aug continue to stand its ground and holds the integrity of the overall trend. We should see a break out of this lobotomy within the next 2 days and my best bet would be to upside.

Monday, August 21, 2006

Daily US Market Comments 22 Aug 2006 by MastersoEquity.com

FUNDAMENTALS
Markets ended its 5 days rally on the sudden rise in oil prices due to an escalation in the Iranian crisis. The drop is not a broadbased definite one and with the Iranian crisis being a long term one, it is hard to judge if the rally could truly end at these levels.

TECHNICALS
Oil prices rebounded from its deep oversold position as we have predicted. It is a rebound that is largely expected as we have seen a similar rebound both in May and June this year. Markets were down as it loses upwards momentum but were in reality sideways when looking at the overall trend. With the markets at short term overbought condition and short term resistance levels, it is almost compulsory for this little pullback to happen so that the markets can wear off some of the overbought sentiments. As long as the lows of 4 days ago hold its ground, I would say there will be more upside to come.


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Sunday, August 20, 2006

Daily US Market Comments 21 Aug 2006 by MastersoEquity.com

FUNDAMENTALS
Markets have rallied on favorable economic data so far and there is no strong indication in the background to suggest an end to the rally yet. We should be expecting a little consolidation soon after such a strong run up.

TECHNICALS
Markets have rallied confidently so far and have reached a short term resistance level in the overbought region again. The last 2 days have seen major indices moving up very gradually in a more sideways fashion as they attempt to wear off some of the overbought indication. A break to upside from here should see the markets moving back up to where it used to be early this year.

Daily US Market Comments 21 Aug 2006 by MastersoEquity.com

FUNDAMENTALS
Markets have rallied on favorable economic data so far and there is no strong indication in the background to suggest an end to the rally yet. We should be expecting a little consolidation soon after such a strong run up.

TECHNICALS
Markets have rallied confidently so far and have reached a short term resistance level in the overbought region again. The last 2 days have seen major indices moving up very gradually in a more sideways fashion as they attempt to wear off some of the overbought indication. A break to upside from here should see the markets moving back up to where it used to be early this year.

Daily US Market Comments 21 Aug 2006 by MastersoEquity.com

FUNDAMENTALS
Markets have rallied on favorable economic data so far and there is no strong indication in the background to suggest an end to the rally yet. We should be expecting a little consolidation soon after such a strong run up.

TECHNICALS
Markets have rallied confidently so far and have reached a short term resistance level in the overbought region again. The last 2 days have seen major indices moving up very gradually in a more sideways fashion as they attempt to wear off some of the overbought indication. A break to upside from here should see the markets moving back up to where it used to be early this year.

Daily US Market Comments 21 Aug 2006 by MastersoEquity.com

FUNDAMENTALS
Markets have rallied on favorable economic data so far and there is no strong indication in the background to suggest an end to the rally yet. We should be expecting a little consolidation soon after such a strong run up.

TECHNICALS
Markets have rallied confidently so far and have reached a short term resistance level in the overbought region again. The last 2 days have seen major indices moving up very gradually in a more sideways fashion as they attempt to wear off some of the overbought indication. A break to upside from here should see the markets moving back up to where it used to be early this year.

Daily US Market Comments 21 Aug 2006 by MastersoEquity.com

FUNDAMENTALS
Markets have rallied on favorable economic data so far and there is no strong indication in the background to suggest an end to the rally yet. We should be expecting a little consolidation soon after such a strong run up.

TECHNICALS
Markets have rallied confidently so far and have reached a short term resistance level in the overbought region again. The last 2 days have seen major indices moving up very gradually in a more sideways fashion as they attempt to wear off some of the overbought indication. A break to upside from here should see the markets moving back up to where it used to be early this year.

Thursday, August 17, 2006

Daily US Market Comments 18 Aug 2006 by MastersoEquity.com

FUNDAMENTALS
Markets continue its rally along with collapsing oil prices. Let's see how far this rally can go.

TECHNICALS
Markets move into the overbought region and starts to show signs of taking a breather. It is natural for such short bursts of energy to dissipitate slightly before resuming its trend. The markets are still showing tremendous amount of upwards energy with no definite sign of a reversal yet. Oil prices are back down in oversold region where it tends to rebound. If that happens, it could put some pressure on the market.

Wednesday, August 16, 2006

Daily US Market Comments 17 Aug 2006 by MastersoEquity.com

FUNDAMENTALS
The markets got what it needed for a rally yesterday... the favorable CPI numbers that we spoke about yesterday. :) This should keep the feds at bay for the next fed meeting. Sit back and enjoy the rally.

TECHNICALS
Markets continue their break to upside with a strong follow up yesterday. This is a definite trend break to upside with a lot of energy and volume. In fact, we might even see the dow challenge the May highs. All signs point to a rally at this point of time. Enjoy. :)


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Tuesday, August 15, 2006

Daily US Market Comments 16 Aug 2006 by MastersoEquity.com

FUNDMENTALS
Markets rallied strongly yesterday at last. This is the kind of rally that everyone's been waiting for since the fed release. This is probably in response to the lower than expected PPI. Today's CPI number can still be a dampener to this rally if it does not come up better than expected.

TECHNICALS
Markets went into a strong rally today first by gapping up strongly and then rallying through the day. NASDAQ has broke free of its resistance level on rising volume with near term stochastics progressing healthy up from the oversold region. This is an extremely bullish stance which is expected to continue should it continue to hold above its resistance level over the next couple of days.

Monday, August 14, 2006

Daily US Markets Comments 15 Aug 2006 by MasteroEquity.com

FUNDAMENTALS
Talk about the markets being unpredictable. Markets rallied strongly early yesterday on the middle east cease fire and the consequent drop in oil prices but somehow failed to sustain the rally and succumb by midday to heavy profit taking. Looks like investors these days are trying to take whatever profit they have off the table quickly, given the uncertainty in the markets these days.

TECHNICALS
Markets ended sideways yet again yesterday. What looked to be a channel break quickly dissipitated with the major indices retreating obediently back into their respective price channels. Status quo have been upheld again. Market behaviour yesterday suggest strongly that there is upside potential to this market and have brought near term stochastics looking up from their oversold positions. Let's see if the bullish force manage to pick up some steam today.


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Daily US Market Comments 14 Aug 2006 by MastersoEquity.com

FUNDAMENTALS
Middle East Cease Fire Happened At Last! :) Oil prices are coming back down before market opens today. Could this be the break that we have been waiting for so long? Could this be where the market breaks out of its sideways motion at last? It is still extremely hard to tell even with the futures pointing sharply up right now. The markets have been going down on the good news and moving up on the bad news so far so we will have to see how it goes.

TECHNICALS
Markets have been sideways at their respective resistance levels as if waiting for something to happen. Major indices have expanded their energy at these resistance levels and are seeing near term stochastics in oversold position again... we could see a potential break at this level with the amount of potential energy being built up.

Thursday, August 10, 2006

Daily US Market Comments 11 Aug 2006 by MastersoEquity.com

FUNDAMENTALS
Well, what can we say about fundamentals in this market condition? The market fell on all the good news so far and rose on the bad news... sigh... let's look at the technicals of it all...

TECHNICALS
Yes, this is indeed a technical driven market so far with the Dow and NASDAQ still waging battle at their respective resistance levels. Markets accumulated slightly after 4 down days but did nothing to change the downside inclination of the market unless we see a decisive break to upside from their respective price channels.

Wednesday, August 09, 2006

Daily US Market Comments 10 Aug 2006 by MastersoEquity.com

FUNDAMENTALS
Looks like fundamentals gave all investors a serious let down this time round. Market failed to rally on the rate pause and when at last things look like its moving right yesterday, markets gave way into another day of loss. Oil prices a zipping up along with more and more data suggesting that future rate hikes are possible cast a bearish sentiment over the markets.

TECHNICALS
Markets have made their decision at last, and that is, to continue into their respective price channels. NASDAQ looks good to correction down its downtrend price channel into new lows while the Dow looks good to challenge the July lows. All in all, we see the markets easing down from their overbought positions in normal oscillatory fashion. Contrary to our earlier speculations, this market is still more technically driven.

Tuesday, August 08, 2006

Daily US Market Comments 09 Aug 2066 by MastersoEquity.com

FUNDAMENTALS
The Feds have indeed paused interest rate hikes as widely anticipated yesterday. This is the first time interest rates have taken a pause since 18 fed meetings ago. However, as "I" have anticipated, this news indeed failed to bring about a much anticipated rally but instead led to a profit taking that took the markets back down by the end of the day. Much of this interest rate pause have been priced in so far and along with the dovish comments that Feds will watch inflation very closely and hike rates if necessary in the future, led to a more bearish environment for the markets.

TECHNICALS
Even though markets were down yesterday, its overall movement is still sideways on a weekly basis with inclination to downside. NASDAQ looks ready to move down further into its down trend channel should the drop follows up today. The Dow could still put up a fight at this level as it was off its lows significantly by end of the trading day. Thats said, markets remain largely overbought and at these new 2 month highs, it does leave doubt as to how much momentum are there to top side.

Monday, August 07, 2006

Daily US Market Comments 08 Aug 2006 by MastersoEquity.com

FUNDAMENTALS
Markets corrected slightly on balloning oil prices yesterday but we all know today is the big day that will set the real pace for the market... Big Ben's report! Let's cross our fingers and wait patiently. So far, hopes are high for a rate pause but investor sentiments are still largely bearish and poised to take profit.

TECHNICALS
Markets continue sideways in anticipation of the Fed release today. This is going to be fundamentals driven but I do suspect that first, Big Ben's going to raise rates anyways for one last time to seal in the effects and secondly, even if he do not, there may be little topside left in the rally as profit takers stand poised on the sidelines.

Sunday, August 06, 2006

Daily US Market Comments 07 Aug 2006 by MastersoEquity.com

FUNDAMENTALS
Well, tomorrow's it! The big day where the fed can really make a difference. I suspect trading will be light today in preparation for the release. The "FED's Done" rally have been going on well so far and has made me wonder how much more has not been priced in so far. Will a rate pause really trigger a bigger rally or have the bulk of it been priced in already? Also, with some economic indicators still telling the story of a strong economy, will a rate pause now only lead to more rate hikes at the end of the year? My take is that the FED would probably need to hike rates at least for one final time tomorrow in order to seal in the effects so far so that it can be sustainable. Either way, however, I have my doubts as to how much more the market can go up from here without some form of profit taking or correction.

TECHNICALS
This is obviously a fundamental driven time and technicals will really be somewhat of a waste of time. From the looks of it, however, neither index are clearly safe from falling back into their respective channels and it won't be surprising to see a correction at this point.

Thursday, August 03, 2006

Daily US Market Comments 04 Aug 2006 by MastersoEquity.com

FUNDAMENTALS
Sure has been some pretty crazy market conditions lately. The markets opened in the red and then marched progressively into the green through the day led by the Dow. There have been a huge mix of data, earnings and news that pushed or pulled the market in their respective directions. The end result of that whole day of mess is a net gain in the market ahead of the employment data that is to come today. Employment data is at best a lagging indicator and may not have such a big impact on the possibility of another .25 basis point next Tuesday. Yesterday's gain has been marginal without any leadership and with advancers leading decliners on a small margin. Looks like the markets will take a definite tone only after next week's Fed Release.

TECHNICALS
Markets continue to struggle at their respective resistance levels without at sign of a definite direction. Looks like there is a fairly equal play of fundamentals and technicals at this point and that the Fed release should be the main catalyst for the new trend.

Wednesday, August 02, 2006

Daily US Market Comments 03 Aug 2006 by MastersoEquity.com

FUNDAMENTALS
An upday in the market which is really just a sideways neutral day yesterday. Markets took a boost from favorable earnings but thats just about all there is to it. A slew of uncertainty continue to reign in the background... the heat wave and its effect on energy, the oil reserves being lesser than estimate, the coming hurricane, the middle east crisis and Uncle Ben's release next week. This is a market on the loose...

TECHNICALS
Markets continue to trade sideways at the top of the respective price channels. We are back where we were 2 days ago again and it is time again for the markets to prove itself.

Tuesday, August 01, 2006

Daily US Market Comments 02 August 2006 by MastersoEquity.com

FUNDAMENTALS
Markets fell yesterday with the possibility of a rate hike at 50% chance due to increased retail spending. On top of that, oil have staged a small rebound as heat wave in New York increased energy demand.

TECHNICALS
Looks like this market is largely technical driven afterall as all indices failed at their respective resistance levels. NASDAQ continued its gameplan of a downward channel and we may see a new low coming up as the Dow continued down into its sideways channel. The only thing that may rescue this situation may be a committment to a rate pause by the feds.