Stock Market Analysis

Monday, November 23, 2015

Thanksgiving Week...

Welcome to Thanksgiving week! Even though this was supposed to be an American holiday, it has begun to take root all over the world, becoming a festival when people show appreciation to their family, friends and loved ones. The stock market tends to behave during Thanksgiving week the same way it does during Christmas week with light volume and a generally bullish tendency. However, investors were clearly cautious ahead of this year's Thanksgiving due to how active the ISIS has been recently, increasing the risk that they may just strike hard during the holiday weekend, causing the market to slump. Indeed, with the ISIS dying to make a statement, it won't come as a surprise that they might be planning something big for Thanksgiving weekend. If it does, the market may open to a huge surprise next Monday. This might be why the market traded so cautiously and on such light volume today. Both the bonds market and the options market reflected this cautiousness with investors buying into the safety of bonds and options traders trading in favor of put options. As such, its another very uncertain week with plenty of reasons to be bullish and bearish. On the one hand, the recent 30MA rebound and the fact that historically thanksgiving week tend to be positive weeks put the odds to upside. On the other hand, the ISIS global threat was one that was not seen since 911. It was indeed an extremely rare period where both the short term and long term outlook for the market is this uncertain. Even though the general market is so uncertain, certain pockets of opportunities still exist and me and my Master's Stock Options Picks subscribers got into one today and I will report on the outcome.

Market Crash Timer: ORANGE

For now, the market remains in short term bull trend within an intermediate and primary neutral trend.

Sunday, November 15, 2015

Potential Start of Market Crash!

What a week it was last week! The market was negative exactly how I predicted it last Monday morning due to the combined effects of a grossly short term overbought condition brought about by 6 consecutive positive weeks as well as a looming BIG resistance level with the rate hike hammer back again as the catalyst for all these. However, what I didn't expect was the magnitude and intensity of this pullback. The S&P500 actually fell through the 30MA like it wasn't there at all instead of testing it for support before deciding where to go next like it usually do.

Such readiness to go straight down upon meeting a resistance level reminded me once again of August 2011 and October of 2007, when the market struggled at a certain new high, took a hit, came back up to test the new high again just to be beaten down into a very significant down trend. This failure is a very critical one and has every characteristics of  the start of an intermediate bear trend... even an all out market crash due to the market being within the framework of an intermediate and primary neutral trend with all the technical timeline due for a major market crash now supported with the potential rate hike and the rekindled global terror unrest (Prayers be for Paris and Syria and everywhere else affected but not in focus by the media). In fact, this pattern falls exactly within the structure that I expected (mentioned in my reports months ago) for major market crashes where the market struggles around a new high price for an extended period of months before going into critical failure for the ensuing market crash.

With bond yields around recent highs and therefore a good escape for investors and total equities put call ratio steady in favor of put options trading (learn what put options are for FREE) exactly how it is everytime the market is truly bearish, I would see the next two weeks as extremely bearish inclined. Wanna profit with me in this bearish inclined market? Join my Master's Stock Options Picks service now!

Market Crash Timer: ORANGE

For now, the market remains in short term bear trend within an intermediate and primary neutral trend.

Warning: This report is NOT concise actionable investment advise! It is just my daily views and outlook on the market. For my exact trading picks, please check out my Master's Stock Options Picks Service!

Tuesday, November 10, 2015

No Longer Overbought...

Bulls and bears continued their epic battle today as the bulls amazingly reclaimed lost ground by the end of the day, closing the day slightly positive from a deeply red position. Market took an early beating as Store Sales today turned out pretty much negative citing bad weather (again...).

Well, even though the market was slightly positive, the internals were more bearish than bullish with bond yields dropping across the board and total equities put call ratio still in the uncertain range. The recently high bond yields are another supporting reason for this retreat. With bond yields this high, bonds are again becoming attractive to investors who would like to take profit on the recent rally in order to stock up on some bonds.

However, with the market already off short term overbought condition and just a short throw away from the 30MA, there should only be one more down day before we need to see how the market behave around the 30MA to determine what is next. Even within the framework of an intermediate and primary neutral trend and a generally bearish long term outlook, there is room here for a rebound at least to the 2125 new high resistance level before the market see some real pressure.

For now, this remains an extremely tricky market to trade in. Definitely the time for extremely short trades (Just like our 13.7% profit in a single day on  EWZ call options last week! Join my Master's Stock Options Picks Service to trade these short trades with me!).

Market Crash Timer: ORANGE

For now, the market remains in short term bear trend within an intermediate and primary neutral trend.

Sunday, November 08, 2015

What Might Happen This Week...

The US market made another positive week last week, pretty much against my predictions over the past two weeks that the market should take a breather back down to the 30MA before it has energy to move any higher due to extreme short term overbought condition and a looming resistance zone on the new high level.

Last Friday's Jobs Report also increased the bearishness in the market with a huge huge better than expected reading that brought back the rate hike hammer over the heads of all investors. Yes, right now, investors don't want to see great numbers but just slow and steady ones that show the Feds there is no need to do anything to screw things up right now. However, that was not the case last Friday.

Looking at the weekly chart, we also see the S&P500 making a 6th Straight winning week last week. Almost everytime the SP-500 make 6 consecutive positive weeks, there was selling pressure in the two weeks that ensued. As such, the odds this week certainly favors to downside but its not the kind of downside which one should buy put options on but rather the kind of downside to accumulate call options on in preparation of the ensuing breakout. There will also not be any real heavyweight numbers this week, typical of every second week of the month. This is what I typically call a "digestion week" where investors carefully think about and digest the numbers released on the first week and engage in a largely technical form of investing and trading. Yes, I am now of the opinion that the market should be able to perform one last big bull leg before all hell breaks loose in 2016, just like every of the previous market crashes. But of course, getting in at this level is still something for gamblers to do. Investors should still stay on the sidelines and see if the market really do breakout before committing.

Of course, the uncertainty didn't stop me and my Master's Stock Options Picks Subscribers from making a quick one day 13.7% profit on EWZ call options. Not bad for a one day return, isn't it? (Join my Master's Stock Options Picks Program today and WIN!)

Market Crash Timer: YELLOW

For now, the US market turns short term neutral trend within an intermediate and primary neutral trend.

Thursday, November 05, 2015

Sideways Exactly as I Expected...

Much like yesterday, today was a largely uncertain day. Exactly like yesterday, even though the market closed negatively, the internals certainly didn't behave like they do in a typical bearish day. Bond yields barely nudged even though total equities put call ratio did move strongly in favor of put options perhaps in hedging moves ahead of tomorrow's Jobs Report. Basically, this is the kind of day I like to call a "Fake Bearish Day" and should be taken to be more of a sideways day than a bearish day.

Indeed, as I told paid subscribers yesterday,

"From the way it looks, the market might already have moved too much for a priced in action this week so its not unusual to see tomorrow being a largely sideways day"

This was exactly the kind of behavior the market put up as it prepares for a big economic release (I also explained the top 2 typical Jobs Report behavior in my report to paid subscribers yesterday. Yes, I only publicly post my report every other day at best but paid subscribers get my reports DAILY for LIFE... sign up now! Only $99 for LIFE! And it takes only one winning trade to make that back and MORE, you know it!) .

Tomorrow's jobs report is going to be a tricky one as consensus is expecting a huge increase in Non-Farm Payroll, which can be hard to beat and therefore lead to disappointment even if its better than last month. Going by the past behavior of this number, it is also not surprising to see a huge jump month two months after the number make a recent low. This is why tomorrow's number is such an uncertain one. Looking at this uncertainty within the framework of the market right now, with the market up against a strong psychological resistance level and trading in extreme short term overbought condition, not beating this consensus may lead to that pullback I have been talking about since last week. Again, as I said before, this is definitely not the time for mid term kind of trading but short term trading of the extremely short nature. In fact, 2 days ago, me and my Master's Stock Options Picks subscribers took a quick and decent 15% profit with call options on EWZ in just a single day (I personally bagged $548 in that one day, not bad for a one day's work and that's 6 months of the subscription fee back!). That's how short a trading I am talking about here. (Join my Master's Stock Options Picks Service so you don't miss these opportunities!) 

Market Crash Timer: ORANGE

For now, the market remains in short term bull trend within an intermediate and primary neutral trend.

Tuesday, November 03, 2015

Is the Market Going To Just Make a New High?

US market continues to climb higher towards all time high today despite worsening economic data over the last two days. The internals on this rally continues to be extremely suspicious. The bonds market and the total equities put call ratio just aren't moving in tandem in a typical bull market fashion  much. In fact, total equities put call ratio was higher in favor of put options trading, putting the indicator into the uncertain zone once again rather than support today's rally. I am suspecting that traders are already taking put options (Learn about what put options are) positions ahead of the looming psychological resistance level. This is sign that making that new high, if it happens at all, is going to be a really hard thing to do.This Friday's jobs report is expecting some really high numbers and if it fails to meet that expectation, even if its higher, it might spark that pull back I have been talking about.

Indeed, this is going to be a new high that is going to be really hard to make. I am not a person who likes to go against the trend but this rally just doesn't add up so far and evidence are still overwhelming in favor of a market crash during this period of time going into 2016. As such, I have switched to an extremely short term trading methodology in order to take very quick profits on this "rally". How short? Well, how about 9% profit in one day? Thats the call options trade I helped my Master's Stock Options Picks subscribers make today on EWZ which gained 5.6% in one day. (Check out my Master's Stock Options Picks Service now! Get an immediate 50% refund on your subscription if you subscribe today!)

The market has persisted in deeply short term overbought position so far, making it extremely hard to set up a confident intermediate term trade and this is  certainly not the time to employ a buy and hold strategy on stocks. So if you are trading only stocks, this is definitely the time to be patient.

Market Crash Timer: ORANGE

For now, the market remains in short term bull trend within an intermediate and primary neutral trend.

Friday, October 30, 2015

Fake Bearish Day

I would call today a "Fake Bearish Day" for even though the market closed negatively, the internals were actually very bullish! In fact long term bond yields rose as investors move out of bonds into equities. Total equities put call ratio also remained stalwartly in the bullish zone. In fact, the worse than expected GDP number (as well as all of the other negative surprises today) should have caused the market to take back all of yesterday's gains, but it didn't. All of these tell me that the bulls are indeed very strong at this point and is aimed at challenging the 2100 points level as soon as tomorrow. However, resistance should be expected at that level with the market in such short term overbought condition. I maintain my view that every dip right now should only be used for the exit of losing shorts. I do not even recommend buying on the dips for short term trading for the moment.

Market Crash Timer: ORANGE

For now, the market remains in short term bull trend within an intermediate and primary neutral trend.