Stock Market Analysis

Wednesday, September 20, 2017

US Market On a Rocket!

So far this week, I have been wrong on my profit taking prediction for the week as the US market continues to make new historical highs every single day. Well, this is the kind of mistakes that I don't mind making as not only am I looking at my existing positions going higher, me and my Master's Stock Options Picks subscribers also took the opportunity to accumulate into call options on stocks that have not quite participated in this rally so far.

Yes, the US market truly is on a rocket right now with the Dow making its 8th straight positive day yesterday! The S&P500 also made a new historical high close yesterday despite going deeper into short term overbought territory. Interestingly, the Nasdaq doesn't seem to be participating in this rally that enthusiastically so far. In fact, no new highs have been made this week. Since the Nasdaq tends to lead the Dow and the S&P500, does that show that the profit taking I predicted is still very real?

Well, from the recent short term overbought signals triggered by the S&P500, the 8 straight bullish days by the Dow and the non participation from the Nasdaq composite as well as confirmation from a sudden drop in total equities put call ratio in favor of call options trading (yes, a sudden drop is always an opposite suggestion), I would say the profit taking is still very real and may start as early as today. However, I do expect this to be a fairly mild profit taking, probably just a couple of days to wear off the short term overbought condition before the market continues its rocket to the moon.

Yes, I continue to think that this is a primary bull trend that has at least another year to go as long as Trump remains in office and nothing changes.

Today is also FOMC announcement day.

However, since the feds are not expected to do anything with the rates today, I don't foresee any significant impact on the stock market apart from the usual uncertain trading behavior in the morning and perhaps for the rest of the day as well.

I started a new feature in in order to help beginners to options trading learn on their own for free, called "Options Reading Courses". This is like "playlists" in youtube whereby I organize those 652 tutorials that I have written for the website into themes like "Options Basics" , "Covered Call Course" etc so that anyone who wishes to learn about these for free can do so at their own time. Yes, it can be very confusing to have to surf through that much information about options trading on your own so I hope this feature can be a valuable tool to your options trading. Click the link to check out Free Options Courses now!

For now, the market remains in all out bull trend.

Monday, September 18, 2017

Probable Profit Taking Week Ahead...

Welcome to week 4 of September!

Exactly as I have predicted last Monday morning, the US market resumed its bull trend (against soooooo many "experts" view hahaha I always have a good laugh how these people believe in what they think rather than really look at what the market is REALLY doing) and both the Dow and the S&P500 closed at new historical highs.

Of course I know you are going to ask, so, yes me and my Master's Stock Options Picks subscribers did make money from it because we prepositioned ourselves with call options the week before and added on to it on Monday itself as well.

So, is the rally going to continue into this week?

Well, I would like to see such strength continue of course but from the way the market has powered all the way into new highs without a single retreat, leading to the Dow closing the week last Friday with a very dangerous isolated hammer candlestick, the very same kind that started almost every intermediate correction over the past year, I am inclined to say that this week could be a bullish inclined profit taking week.

What I mean by bullish inclined profit taking is profit taking that faces alot of resistance trying to go down due to prevailing bullish sentiment, leading to a somewhere sideways slightly bearish movement that is packing energy to go back upwards. To me, this is a great time to seek opportunities to add on to our existing bullish positions rather than get out in fear.

With the economic numbers growing at a healthy pace, unemployment rate no where near a bubble situation, housing market no where near a bubble, bonds no where near a bubble, I don't see any reason why the market would crash any time in the near future. In fact, I continue to stand by my prediction that this rally have another year to go as long as Trump remains in office.

I hope you guys are enjoying this rally as much as I do. In fact, my Ride the Flow system continued to profit into this rally, pushing our overall account profit into 35% so far this year! Yes, this is one of my proudest options trading method but its so little known. It has the capability of making a constant profit no matter if its a sideways or a trending market with just one trade! Click here to read about it!

For now, the market remains in all out bull trend.

Friday, September 15, 2017

Quadruple Witching Friday

It's Quadruple Witching Friday today!

This means that a whole bunch of derivatives are expiring on the same day today, creating an unique market condition. Some says its a very volatile day for equities but the truth is, the unique condition is usually creates is one with very limited trading range with huge trading volume.Yes, this, happening on a Friday, makes it not that attractive a day to be putting on new positions as you are not likely to benefit from Friday's move itself and would have to hold a position through an uncertain weekend. Read more about Quadruple Witching.

Apart from Quadruple Witching day, today is also North Korea Missile Testing Day!

Yes, North Korea test fired its longest range missile ever in the morning, flying 3700km over Japan and landing in the ocean east of Japan. The last time such an event happened, the US market took a huge hit as fears surrounding the Guam threaten reemerges. However, since many missile tests ago, investors and traders have learned that such an impact on the US market usually last only a day or two and usually leads to a huge rally after that. Thats why there are people in the options community these days calling this the "North Korean Missile Play", using volatility strategies to benefit from such an event.

However, I do not see that the missile test would have the same effect it did on the market this time round.

Why is that so?

Well, its Quadruple Witching day! Its a day the witches win and the market trades largely range bound and I don't see that changing even for a North Korean Missile Test. In fact, I suspect many investors and traders are already desensitised to such an event and is unlikely to react to it. In fact, I suspect the amount of arbitrage that has been set up to take advantage of this event has already more or less reduced the impact on the market to negligible unless North Korea comes up with a serious threat. 

So far, the US market has performed pretty much exactly I expected it to every step of the way. The Dow broke and continued upwards from the 22K level, exactly as I have predicted and the next thing it should do is take a little profit taking, pull down, retest and establish the 22K as a support level before going further upwards. That should happen next week.

So, have a great weekend!

For now, the US Market remains in all out bull trend.

Thursday, September 14, 2017

14 Sep Report Sent...

14 September Report Sent...

Today's daily report has been sent to all paid subscribers via email.

(I only publicly post my reports here every other day. Do you Wish To Be on the Paid Subscriber email list? Subscribe by hitting the yellow button on the right below my profile photo)

Wednesday, September 13, 2017

Dow Begins Real 22K Breakout

Exactly as I have predicted it on Monday morning, the US market reversed strongly with the Dow shot up and above the 22,000 points level in one fell sweep!

Did you guys manage to profit from that move like me and my Master's Stock Options Picks subscribers did? :) We were prepositioned for this move since last week and doubled up on it Monday morning for even more profit! If you missed making money from Monday's move, you really need to join me for just $1 at now!

Better than the rally on Monday, yesterday's positive follow up, even though it was not a huge positive day, it was an IMPORTANT one which confirms this to be the start of a new leg upwards rather than just another bull trap. It also closed the S&P500 at a new all time high of 2496 points and reversed the intermediate trend from neutral back up to bullish, making it an all out bullish market again.

Looking inside, all my favorite confirming indicators supported the day to be a truly positive day, bond yields rising as investors reallocate back to equities and total equities put call ratio continues to trade in favor of call options. A look at the volume of both the indices and their ETFs showed that the move was not overdone and therefore a very healthy one which puts all the odds to upside from here onwards.

This truly excited me and my subscribers as we accumulated into QQQ call options a week ahead of this move. We did get into SPY call options too but only for a single day profitable trade. All in all, this has been an extremely profitable season for us so far! 

I see the next level of uncertainty around the 22,500 level where we should experience some short term profit taking. Until then, lets enjoy the ride!

Also, those of you with options trading questions you would like me to answer, you could follow me on Quora at and request your questions to me. 

For now, the market returns to a short term, intermediate and primary bull trend.

Tuesday, September 12, 2017

Dow Challenges the 22K Level Again As I Have Predicted!

Yes! Exactly as I have predicted over the past week / month and exactly as I have said in yesterday's report, the Dow rebounded and challenged the 22K level and closed above it! That allowed me and my Master's Stock Options Picks subscribers to turn a profit on all the call options that we have been accumulating over the past week in preparation for this move!

So, what is going to happen next?

My analysis today for paid subscribers have been sent with my analysis on this issue! I only post my reports publicly every other day so if you wish to receive today's report, please subscribe by hitting the yellow subscribe button on the right below my profile photo now!

Monday, September 11, 2017

Market Outlook Week 3 September

Welcome to the 3rd week of September!

Wait! Why am I calling this the 3rd week of September when this is clearly but the 2nd full week of September? That's because, as an options trader, I count my weeks based on the regular options expiration calendar. Regular options expires every 3rd Friday of the month, as such this week is the week of the 3rd Friday of the month, hence the 3rd week of the month for me.

However, this Friday is a very special expiration Friday. It is not only the expiration Friday for regular equities options, but also  options on futures, index futures and Single Stock Futures as well. As such, there is a very special term for such a day, called "Quadruple Witching" day, a day which occurs only 4 times a year when multiple derivative instruments expire on the same day. (Read about Quadruple Witching)

So, what is the effect of such a day?

Well, when derivatives expire, they increase the trading of the underlying equities, spiking the trading volume in the market but they are not historically known to be market moving. In fact, its usually just a very narrow trading day with HUGE volume. As such, nothing to worry about.

Last week, the market took short term profits as I have expected and the market closed with the week negative. This left alot of investors and traders feeling very uncertain, as reflected in the bond yields that barely nudged and total equities put call ratio staying in the uncertain zone. However, this is actually a POSITIVE sign!

Why is that a positive?

Well, because the market did close a pretty negative week but investors and traders were only at most "uncertain" rather than all out bearish like real negative weeks. This makes the possibility of a rebound and a resuming of the bull run a very high probability event this week onwards. In fact, looking at the weekly charts, I really like how both the S&P500 and the Dow stopped right on top of their respective weekly 10MAs, which is usually a pattern that sets up a rebound.

We hope to see confirmation of this rebound today, Monday. In fact, the pre market futures are already pointing strongly positive. Even though that has little to no correlation to how the day will end, it does give a feel of the sentiment at this point in time and it definitely supports my outlook.

Are you prepositioned to profit from such a move? If not, you really need to join me and profit with me for just $1 now! In fact, if you had only trade 1 miserable contract of every of my recommendations this year, you would have made $1,393.00! Take a look:

For now, the market remains in short term and intermediate neutral trend within a primary bull trend.

Have a VERY profitable week ahead!