Stock Market Analysis

Tuesday, July 28, 2015

5 Down Days! What's Next?

5 consecutive down days in total and 3 consecutive down days after I classified the Market Crash Timer as Yellow.

However, this may be a good thing... the last few times the market was down 5 consecutive days... 01/06/15, 09/19/13, 12/21/12, 09/20/12, 07/05/12, 05/11/12, 04/03/12, 11/16/11, the 6th or 7th day would turn out to be a positive day, mostly on the 6th day and occasionally on the 7th day. This means a high probability intraday trading opportunity (but which exact option to buy? Join my Master's Stock Options Picks Service ) tomorrow!

So, what does this mean going forward?

Nothing.

There is really little correlation between 5 down days and the market going weeks forward. So, its back down to what the general market is doing once this oversold one day rally is over. It could go higher, it could go lower and my bet would still be lower with what the Feds might cook up on Wednesday. The domino effect from China and a rate hike at this moment may be the exact catalyst needed to quicken and / or justify the market crash that we all had our eyes on for so long.

Market Crash Timer: YELLOW

For now, the US market turns a short term bear trend within an intermediate neutral trend and a primary bull trend.

Wednesday, July 22, 2015

Market Crash Timer: YELLOW!

The Nasdaq100 really made me wonder if the final bull leg has been completed because the market has never been this strange for years with the bond yields continuing to flatten and
everything just feels like lego stacked up too high and shaking. In fact, going by my outlook of the market going into a general bear trend in 2016, and the tendency for the market
to make a sharp rise, then plateau for two or three months before collapsing into a bear trend, the timing looks just about right what the NASDAQ100 is doing now.

In fact, I have long pre-positioned my Master's Stock Options Picks Subscribers with put options positions all week long and are all now profitable and will be even more so when
my prediction work out. However, the market isn't going to go down straight from here, no no no, so you still need the kind of sharp market timing that I give my subscribers in order
to turn a profit in this volatile market. Yes, I keep saying that the market is no place for soothsayers, so keeping in mind our general prediction, we still base our trading decisions
on what is actually happening.

I have long explained the basis of my prediction of the 2016 market crash in my many previous posts so I shall not repeat them again here. What I really want to focus on now is the
market timing of this event and how its going to happen. In fact, I am going to add a new section to my daily comments called the Market Crash Timer, with GREEN (meaning not happening),
YELLOW (its coming!) and RED (it is here!). And before you have any negative feelings about market crashes, it is about the best time for options traders to make money with the
sharp movements and high implied volatility. In fact, we enjoyed great gains during the last market crash so we are preparing ourselves for yet another victorious market crash, are you
ready to join us in this?

Market Crash Timer: YELLOW

For now, the market turns short term neutral trend within an intermediate and primary bull trend.

Monday, July 20, 2015

Pending Market Crash?

Without any surprise, the SP-500 reached for new high today as I have predicted last week. As I mentioned to paid subscribers, we always see the NASDAQ leading the way whenever a major resistance is to be broken and this is once again so in this case. The Dow Jones is still behind the curve on this and so, with the NASDAQ so much short term overbought, we could see a little pullback before the SP-500 and Dow make a real breakout.

Week 4 of each month tend to be a quieter week in terms of economic data and is also a time investors and traders reveal their true intentions after properly digesting all of the major heavyweight data for the month so far and prepositioning for the heavyweight datas of the following month.

Over the past few days, I observed a disturbing sign... a gradual flattening of the bond yields curve despite the strong rising market. This is usually the kind of pattern we observe before major market crashes. This is once again in line with my belief that this might be the final bull leg before the major market crash ala 2001, 2008 . This is when market timing becomes extremely important if you wish to catch this final wave and then turn around and profit to downside with the crash... this is what I help my Master's Stock Options Picks Subscribers do. How about you?

For now, the US market remains in short term bull trend within an intermediate and primary bull trend. 

Tuesday, July 14, 2015

New High Coming Up!

The US market continues to behave exactly as I have predicted in my previous post, with much of the negativity surrounding the Grexit already priced in, the only way forward is upwards and it has been so this week so far. In fact, the SP-500 took back all the losses on the Great Grexit Grind day, putting the market back on track for that final bull leg I kept talking about.

However, with three big up days already clocked in, I won't be surprised to see a couple of slower days before the market challenge for a new high. This Grexit pullback also completed a much needed intermediate correction, which is very much needed for the market to muster enough energy for a new high. Yes, I am saying, no matter what happens in Greece from this point forward, the US market can only get better. In fact, the most probable scenario is some kind of positive resolution to this issue. I have already prepositioned my Master's Stock Options Picks Subscribers with SPY call options, have you?

For now, the US market turns short term bull trend within an intermediate and primary bull trend.

Tuesday, July 07, 2015

Great Grexit Grind

Ever since that scary day I mentioned back in 29 June, the US market has indeed not gone any lower since that big overdone day. This proves that the "worst case scenario" has almost been fully priced in by that big day. So point proven. However, the market hadn't really gone any higher either, what's up with that?

So what happened over the past few days following that big overdone day I now call the "Great Grexit Grind". Since that big day, investors and traders have been buying up against every bad news coming out of Greece almost on a daily basis. This means that the buying has not given up. Yesterday was one of those days where the buying fought hard against the selling. Bond yields continued dropping and total equities put call ratio remained high in favor of put options trading so the market sentiment is very bearish indeed. Make no mistake, this is a very dangerous time. This means that this is going to be a very events driven condition. However, the sooner we see a resolution, making this news series fade away, the sooner the market can go into that final bull leg I have been talking about for so long. And because almost all of the "worst case scenario" surrounding the Grexit has already been priced in so far, the market is now more inclined to upside than downside no matter how the Grexit actually ends, as long as it ends.

For now, the US market turns a short term neutral trend within an intermediate neutral and primary bull trend.

Monday, June 29, 2015

Scary Day?

Yes, it was a scary day coming out of a scary weekend as investors were helplessly bombarded by news coming out of Greece that they can do nothing about.

In fact, investors were already selling off last week prior to the weekend in case something like this happened. I wasn't one of the prudent ones because like there are some companies that are too big to fail, Greece is also too big to fail and there will always be something or someone stepping in last minute to remedy the situation like so many times before. However, this time round, amazingly, no such remedies turned up.

However, looking at the trading behavior today, everything screams out "overdone" once again. Volume surged, Put Call Ratio surged, Bond prices surged... all of these with the Dow down over 300 points in a single day. All of these suggest to me that pretty much all the negativity surrounding the Greek issue have been priced in and we should see one more down day in the most and then we should be ready to gear up to upside.

Yes, its a painful day, but the market did something similar not so long ago back in March and see what happened? Yes, I did say the second half of this year is going to be very dangerous and today's market action has all the looks of starting a bear trend... but just not yet... its just still too prematured. The pieces are not yet in place... just a couple of months more...

For now, the US market turned short term bear trend within an intermediate neutral trend and primary bull trend.

Tuesday, June 23, 2015

Will We See New High?

After a day of mixed economic data, the US market closed very slightly higher today as it continued the breakout that I predicted since two weeks ago. So far, my Master's Stock Options Picks subscribers have benefited from our call options picks on the QQQ and SPY since the reversal begun last week, are you?

Today's economic data continued the trend that I have been writing about for weeks, which is, housing continues to boom while the rest of the economic indicators wane. Durable goods orders turned in much worse than expected today while New Home Sales boomed. This resulted in a small rally in the morning and following the release of the New Home Sales data and then a sharp sell off. It was truly an uncertain day as investors continued to return to equities from bonds, raising bond yields across the board while options traders start to get cautious, raising total equities put call ratio once again to near par. Every time the total equities put call ratio movement do not agree with the market action of the day, I take a second look and see what might be the problem and for now, it seems like breaking the new high seems to be not that certain for traders in general who have been more risk adverse for months. However, at this point in time, there isn't any strong market action to suggest that this rally is in any kind of risk and it still looks strongly poised to make new highs. As traders, we trade what is going on, not what we think is about to happen. As such, I would still be pretty much bullish inclined at this moment.

For now, the US market remains in short term, intermediate and primary bull trend.