Stock Market Analysis

Thursday, November 05, 2015

Sideways Exactly as I Expected...

Much like yesterday, today was a largely uncertain day. Exactly like yesterday, even though the market closed negatively, the internals certainly didn't behave like they do in a typical bearish day. Bond yields barely nudged even though total equities put call ratio did move strongly in favor of put options perhaps in hedging moves ahead of tomorrow's Jobs Report. Basically, this is the kind of day I like to call a "Fake Bearish Day" and should be taken to be more of a sideways day than a bearish day.

Indeed, as I told paid subscribers yesterday,

"From the way it looks, the market might already have moved too much for a priced in action this week so its not unusual to see tomorrow being a largely sideways day"

This was exactly the kind of behavior the market put up as it prepares for a big economic release (I also explained the top 2 typical Jobs Report behavior in my report to paid subscribers yesterday. Yes, I only publicly post my report every other day at best but paid subscribers get my reports DAILY for LIFE... sign up now! Only $99 for LIFE! And it takes only one winning trade to make that back and MORE, you know it!) .

Tomorrow's jobs report is going to be a tricky one as consensus is expecting a huge increase in Non-Farm Payroll, which can be hard to beat and therefore lead to disappointment even if its better than last month. Going by the past behavior of this number, it is also not surprising to see a huge jump month two months after the number make a recent low. This is why tomorrow's number is such an uncertain one. Looking at this uncertainty within the framework of the market right now, with the market up against a strong psychological resistance level and trading in extreme short term overbought condition, not beating this consensus may lead to that pullback I have been talking about since last week. Again, as I said before, this is definitely not the time for mid term kind of trading but short term trading of the extremely short nature. In fact, 2 days ago, me and my Master's Stock Options Picks subscribers took a quick and decent 15% profit with call options on EWZ in just a single day (I personally bagged $548 in that one day, not bad for a one day's work and that's 6 months of the subscription fee back!). That's how short a trading I am talking about here. (Join my Master's Stock Options Picks Service so you don't miss these opportunities!) 

Market Crash Timer: ORANGE

For now, the market remains in short term bull trend within an intermediate and primary neutral trend.


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