Stock Market Analysis

Tuesday, October 20, 2015

Another Weird Bullish Day...

Another very weird "bullish" day where only the price was bullish but none of the internals were.

The pattern has been consistent today and the past two weeks... lots of selling for the bulk of the day with accumulation during the final hours. If the good old adage is true that smart money buys at the end of the day, then we are indeed seeing alot of very smart buying over the past few weeks indeed. However, I am very hesitant about this "rally" because the internals continue to look rather empty, like this is a hot air balloon. Bond yields barely nudged, total equities put call ratio continue to be in the uncertain zone, economic data continue to be largely mixed, and volume is falling. On top of all these, the SP500 is at the top of that sideways price channel ceiling... everything shouts "Danger" and is definitely not the time to be newly long if you are a derivatives trader who cannot hold on forever in the event of a correction.

This is when I will continue to be careful, maintaining my previous outlook of a 30MA retest before I can be sure of anything.

Market Crash Timer: ORANGE

For now, the market continues to be in a short term bull trend within an intermediate and primary neutral trend.

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