Stock Market Analysis

Monday, October 26, 2015

Classic Uncertain Day...

US market received a wake up call today as both New Home Sales and Dallas Fed surprised negatively in huge amounts. However, like I always said before, one or two bad numbers do not erase the effects of a string of previous good news. Housing market has been strong all year and numbers have been great all the way up to last week's Existing Home Sales. The much lower than expected Dallas Fed also did not erase the effects of last Friday's great PMI number. As such, we saw a largely muted response in the market today with a huge tee off in trading volume as neither investors nor traders knew what to do at a time like this when the market is too short term overbought for a good trading setup nor is today's number encouraging enough for investors to jump in on. Such is what a truly uncertain day is about.

Long term bond yields were down as investors take some profit and take a more long term bearish stance but keeping short term bond yields completely still, reflecting the short term uncertainty. Total equities put call ratio returned to the uncertain zone as well. All of these along with the low volume, small daily change and limited trading range makes today a textbook uncertain day.

So, what's going to happen tomorrow?

First of all, lets not forget that the market has already staged a bullish breakout on a double bottom reversal pattern. Within this framework, the market is expected to have higher upside potential than downside potential, meaning even if it goes downwards, it is expected to be very limited and the clever money really should be buying rather than shorting even right now. However, I still expect a bit of a pull back from this point in order to set up better entry points for traders over the next few days. However, this is not a move I would put my money on. In fact, I would only use such a move to get out of my losing shorts. The short term overbought condition and the 2100 points resistance level both warrant such a relief this week and this could be catalyst-ed by worse than expected economic data this week. Its really funny how economic data tend to move largely in tandem, when one or two numbers start to come in bad, the rest of the data for the week do have a high chance of turning in bad as well.

This is truly one of the most tricky times to be putting your money in the market, both for the short term and the intermediate term and definitely the time to be taking some short term profit off your table just like how my Master's Stock Options Picks Subscribers took a 46.7% profit off COG put options last Friday (Join my Master's Stock Options Picks Service now!)

Market Crash Timer: ORANGE

For now, the market remains in short term bull trend within an intermediate and primary neutral trend.

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