Stock Market Analysis

Tuesday, March 17, 2009

Housing Start Rally?


Well, housing start beat expectation today with a higher number for the month of February. So, is this the reversal in the housing market that investors have been waiting for? Well, since the housing slump begun in 2005, there have been MANY single month rise in housing start. None of which is sustainable enough to turn the 5 months moving average around. So, if anyone is going to tell me that this is the bottom for the housing market based on this number alone, I may have to just say "SHUT UP!". No matter what I say, the Dow was back up to its 30SMA today, gaining 178 points to close near yesterday's high. Here's the catch... it is STILL stopped by its 30SMA like I have mentioned in my previous posts and it is still in the danger zone. The big players fooling around in their dark pools and the ton of algorithm machines out there programmed to short at resistance levels may still kick in as fast as tomorrow and heave in the big harvest they have been preparing for the early bulls. Yes, the intention of the market is still not clearly bullish so I would be very cautious these couple of days especially with quadruple witching coming up on Friday (see economic calendar). Such volatility is going to be the playground of the big players.

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