Stock Market Analysis

Wednesday, March 11, 2009

Just Another Sideways Day...


The Dow closed sideways today by a merely +3.91 POINTS (not %). Again, this is not unusual following big up or down days, making the next few days critical. If the Dow closes in a significant down day tomorrow, the bear trend resumes straight away. Otherwise, we could see a relief rally that goes as high up as 7500 points before the bear trend resumes. And yes, either way, the market is going down, no doubt about it. This final capitulation need to be a painful one before things get better and with a ton of doubt still in the economy and investors not reacting to 8.1% unemployment rate optimistically, there definitely is still way to go downwards. In fact, the NASDAQ composite has yet to break into new lows significantly like the Dow and the S&P500 has done, which is why I still think there is more to go downwards. In fact, options traders are also having a hard time deciding what to do as put call ratio (see put call ratio) remained almost stagnant the past few days. There are no indications suggesting why the market action over the past few days isn't a classic bull trap / relief rally and the Dow continues to be in an all out bear trend.

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