Stock Market Analysis

Tuesday, March 03, 2009

Looking Forward to Job Numbers...


The Dow went sideways today, dropping a mere 37 points following yesterday's tumble. Yes, like I always say, not strange to see a few sideways day after huge up or down moves. Such sideways days are usually nothing more than the bears taking a breather before going down some more. Investors will be looking forward to the series of job related numbers from tomorrow onwards starting with the ADP job report tomorrow, the Jobless claims on Thursday and then the granddaddy of all job numbers, the Job report on Friday (see economic calendar). Yes, the job numbers are going to be worse than the last month, no doubts about it... the only question is, how will investors react to it? As we have experienced in the past few months, investors are buying into each worse unemployment number in expectation of the peak unemployment reversal. Yes, almost all of the previous stock market crisis has ended when the unemployment number reaches it peak. The only problem is, you never know where the peak is until it starts coming down. That is why investors would strategically buy into each higher number in order to preposition themselves. That's really what I have been doing as well using the fiduciary call options strategy on long term stock options.

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