Stock Market Analysis

Tuesday, September 08, 2015

Long Weekend Candy...

Global markets were upbeat today, lifting the US market coming out of the labor day long weekend. What a great way for those dying for a little bullish relief to come out of the long weekend. Even though I am not sure what such a relief really do for anyone. Indeed, volume was lackluster and the market really only remained largely within the recent trading range, made it more of a sideways day than a truly bullish one.

The market is obviously in a kind of congestion zone now, an area with plenty of reasons to buy and plenty of reasons to be bearish, leading to more or less a sideways trend. Indeed, following the huge ditch of 24 Aug, one can actually say that there are more upside than downside potential, making this area a good area to accumulate into if this is nothing more than an intermediate correction. However, one can also say that this is the start of a more significant bear trend since all the technical indications as well as stock market cycle is overdue one, making all up days a good area for selling or putting on new shorts.

Looking inside the action, we saw a lack of decisive volume, the huge jump down of the total equities put call ratio from deeply bearish to bullish was equally suspicious. All in all, another suspicious "bullish" day to be taken with a huge pinch of salt. Even that bullish day in the Chinese market that has been cited as the reason for the gains everywhere we saw today wasn't even an impressive or decisive one. In fact, it was really more of a sideways day. My Star Trading System also pointed decisively bearish with much more bearish than bullish candidates.

Like I said before, whether or not this is the start of the market crash and whether or not my market crash timer turn RED depends largely on how the market behave when it tests the declining 30MA. For now, I don't see either the bulls or bears making any quick wins even though the inclination is still clearly bearish.

Market Crash Timer: ORANGE

For now, the market turns short term neutral trend within an intermediate bear trend and primary neutral trend.

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