Scary Day?
Yes, it was a scary day coming out of a scary weekend as investors were helplessly bombarded by news coming out of Greece that they can do nothing about.
In fact, investors were already selling off last week prior to the weekend in case something like this happened. I wasn't one of the prudent ones because like there are some companies that are too big to fail, Greece is also too big to fail and there will always be something or someone stepping in last minute to remedy the situation like so many times before. However, this time round, amazingly, no such remedies turned up.
However, looking at the trading behavior today, everything screams out "overdone" once again. Volume surged, Put Call Ratio surged, Bond prices surged... all of these with the Dow down over 300 points in a single day. All of these suggest to me that pretty much all the negativity surrounding the Greek issue have been priced in and we should see one more down day in the most and then we should be ready to gear up to upside.
Yes, its a painful day, but the market did something similar not so long ago back in March and see what happened? Yes, I did say the second half of this year is going to be very dangerous and today's market action has all the looks of starting a bear trend... but just not yet... its just still too prematured. The pieces are not yet in place... just a couple of months more...
For now, the US market turned short term bear trend within an intermediate neutral trend and primary bull trend.
In fact, investors were already selling off last week prior to the weekend in case something like this happened. I wasn't one of the prudent ones because like there are some companies that are too big to fail, Greece is also too big to fail and there will always be something or someone stepping in last minute to remedy the situation like so many times before. However, this time round, amazingly, no such remedies turned up.
However, looking at the trading behavior today, everything screams out "overdone" once again. Volume surged, Put Call Ratio surged, Bond prices surged... all of these with the Dow down over 300 points in a single day. All of these suggest to me that pretty much all the negativity surrounding the Greek issue have been priced in and we should see one more down day in the most and then we should be ready to gear up to upside.
Yes, its a painful day, but the market did something similar not so long ago back in March and see what happened? Yes, I did say the second half of this year is going to be very dangerous and today's market action has all the looks of starting a bear trend... but just not yet... its just still too prematured. The pieces are not yet in place... just a couple of months more...
For now, the US market turned short term bear trend within an intermediate neutral trend and primary bull trend.
posted by Jason Ng at 8:37 PM
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