Stock Market Analysis

Monday, March 07, 2011

Market Sideways Despite Better Economic Data

The Dow closed last week largely sideways, gaining a marginal 0.33% on a week on week basis.

Last week was a week full of positive economic data; Both ISM Index and Unemployment rate beat estimates and continue to sustain the economic recovery.
However, the good performance in the economy was only enough to offset the negativity surrounding the Libyan Crisis and the resulting higher oil prices. As
such, one good day led only to heavy profit taking the next day whole week long. Indeed, the Libyan Crisis had everyone watching oil prices. Higher oil prices
leads to higher energy cost which ultimately dampens economic growth. With Libya's production cut, world oil prices have seen severe volatility last week.
Investors are certainly waiting for OPEC to take actions in order to maintain production but that has yet to happen.

On the technical front, the Dow is certainly oversold on an intermediate basis so a little retreat from this level does still set the stage for the market to go higher
as long as the primary bull trend is intact. Immediate support at about 11,900 with intermediate support at about 11,300.

It is going to be a fairly quiet week ahead just like all second week of the months are with no major economic release.

For now, the Dow remains in short term neutral trend, intermediate bull trend and primary bull trend.


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