Stock Market Analysis

Friday, February 11, 2011

Market Sideways Despite Better Jobless Claims

The Dow continued sideways today, closing marginally lower by 10 points despite better than expected Jobless Claims.

Jobless claims fell under 400K for the first time since about two and a half years ago, turning in at 383K this week. Economists expect the job market to show real signs of recovery only when jobless claims fall under 400K and that is exactly what we got today at last. This data also supports last Friday's surprisingly lower unemployment rate. Jobs make happy consumers which makes a happy US economy and of course a happy stock market. In fact, investors reallocated back into equities on the news, raising bond yields across the board. The mid to long term prospects for the market continue to look extremely promising.

Investors' reallocation back into equities is only sufficient to offset technical traders' profit taking on the deep short term overbought condition the market is in now. This is why the market continued to find strength to merely go sideways in such deep short term overbought condition. The market remains in deep short term overbought condition and a quick breather right about now would certainly give the market legs for more upside to come. However, thats not to say that the market cannot continue to move higher from here without a breather. The US market is used to trading in deep short term overbought conditions for extended periods of time in strong bull trends. As such, lets take a longer perspective on the market and enjoy the recovery bull!

For now, the Dow remains in a short term bull trend, intermediate bull trend within a primary bull trend.
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