Stock Market Analysis

Monday, January 17, 2011

Week 3 January 2011

Welcome back after the long weekend!

The market continued to power ahead despite all signs of weaknesses in both technical indication and economic data with the Dow gaining 0.96% week on week.

Last week has been a week of volatile economic data which disappointed some investors, however, that didn't seem to stop the market from continuing its gradual and steady climb as investors continue to return to the market, creating a month of largely above average trading volume so far.

This week is not only a holiday shortened week but also options expiration week, as such, some volatility should be expected. In focus this week would be Tuesday's Empire State Index and Thursday's Jobless Claims and leading indicators (see Stock Market Calendar). Again, I would expect some volatility in those numbers as well since we are in that period of recovery where some volatility in economic activities is expected.

Make no mistake, historical odds does still favor a lower January and I never want to be on the opposite side of such strong odds. So this is certainly not the time to be newly long unless you are trading positions that you expect to hold beyond January.
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