Stock Market Analysis

Sunday, January 02, 2011

Welcome to 2011!

Welcome to 2011! Here's wishing all of you a very happy and prosperous year ahead!

2010 ended last week with the Dow gaining 9.75% or 1029 points for the year. So far, the US market recovery has been a standard textbook one with a strong rebound on the first year out of recession (+20% in 2003 and +24% in 2009) followed by a slower year (+5% in 2004 and +9.75% in 2010). 2010 has also been a year of recovering economic data with the US real GDP growth rate staying in positive territory throughout 2010 versus the largely negative readings in 2009.

The world is still struggling to break out of the 2008 crisis and hope can now be seen in the numbers. Nobody can predict exactly what is going to happen in 2011 but our short term technical indicators are telling us to be careful in January as short term momentum begun to drop last week. Indeed, the fabled January effect really hadn't been around much the last decade and from the way traders are preparing to short their way into the first month of 2011, I see the odds favoring yet another negative January.

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