Stock Market Analysis

Sunday, December 05, 2010

New Leg Up?

Investors took back lost grounds last week, closing the Dow up 2.62% week on week in a week of mixed economic data and easing tensions on the Korean Crisis.

All of last week's economic data turned out extremely positive except for the marginally higher unemployment rate on Friday. Unemployment rate turned out 0.1% (9.8%) higher than consensus of 9.7% much to the surprise of every analyst as employment data by ADP and the dropping trend in jobless claims over the past 4 weeks seems to point towards a better unemployment rate than this. In fact, many analyst think the data could be revised upwards. As such, investors remained optimistic through the disappointing data on Friday, closing Friday marginally higher by 0.17%. This is going to be a quiet week, like all second week of the months, with no important economic releases. This is also what we call a "Digestion Week" for investors to make sense of all the heavyweight economic data of the first week and to decide what to do.

On the technical front, the Dow made an important rebound off the weekly 200MA with room left to upside, tilting the odds to upside for the next leg. Indeed, as I mentioned last week, a decision made last week would certainly result in a significant trend and that is clearly what is happening now. Immediate resistance level would be the November high with immediate support on the daily 30MA.

For now, the Dow remains in a short term bull trend, intermediate bull trend within a primary bull trend.
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