Stock Market Analysis

Tuesday, February 02, 2010

Healthy Followup

The Dow staged an impressive follow up today, rallying 111 points as store sales staged a healthy rebound.

Same store sales rebounded today by 0.1% following last week's 2.5% drop. Even though the rebound was a small one and early profit taking did exist when the market opened today, investors encouraged by yesterday's ISM index number and rally followed up today into a 111 points rally on healthy volume. Volume was what was missing from yesterday's rally and it seems like more investors are convinced that this is the 10,000 points support bounce that I have been talking about.

Yes, this is definitely the 10,000 points support level at work here. In fact, we are picking up some short term bullish momentum on our indicators at last. So, is this where we pump everything in? Not just yet. Again, we need confirmation. This because even though the technical indications on this "rebound" is very healthy, there is still no move on the bond yield side. Yes, bond yield curve (see Bond Yield Curve) has remained almost stagnant throughout the two days rally. This means that most institutions are not convinced of this "rebound" yet and has yet to reallocate. Indeed, like all intermediate pullbacks, this one's not going down without a fight. In fact, we could see a retest or even a slight breach of the 10,000 points before an all out rebound like what we saw back in July 2009.

For now, the Dow turns a short term neutral trend and a intermediate term bear trend within a primary bull trend.

Chart of Dow Made Using Telechart. Want Your Own Charting Software? Download FREE Now!


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