Stock Market Analysis

Sunday, January 31, 2010

Welcome to February 2010!

Welcome to the first week of February 2010! January ended exactly the way I expected it to... negative. To quote what I said on the first day of January, "January is going to end NASTY". And it did.

The first month of 2010 ended down a total of 478 points or 4.53%. This is almost characteristic behavior of every post recession market. Just take a look at market recovery back in 2003. Doesn't it look exactly the same as what is happening now? Market bottoms out, reverses and then rallies for the rest of the year before running into an intermediate term consolidation. Yes, if history is anything to go by, the next few months is going to be volatile. However, I am optimistic that the market would end higher for the year towards the end of the year. For now, the market is likely to go into another sideways month, trading within last month's range, especially with the monthly 30MA acting as resistance right now.

The Dow is merely 67 points from the 10,000 points short term support level so expect to see some buying there. We will need to monitor the quality of buying around this level in order to determine if the market will go any lower.

For now, the Dow remains in a short term and intermediate term bear trend within a primary bull trend.

Chart of Dow Made Using Telechart. Want Your Own Charting Software? Download FREE Now!


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