One Good Day...

The Dow gained 90 points today ahead of tomorrow's Chicago PMI number. Yes, this is not only a holiday shortened week but also a heavy weight week full of heavy weight numbers such as the ISM index on Wednesday and Job Report on Thursday (see Stock Market Calendar).

Investors are clearly expecting the optimistic numbers to continue into this round, hence the early buying. Are all these enough to change the technicals? Clearly not yet. The Dow has been stopped right at its 30days moving average line today which is short term resistance for the pullback scenario. Chances are slim that the Dow will find the strength to break upwards tomorrow no matter how the Chicago PMI turned out but if it does, it merely goes back into a short term Neutral trend with not clear strength to carry the intermediate term rally on much longer. If it fails and retreats tomorrow, short term support would be around the 8000 points level. The US market just isn't recovering like those of the BRIC nations, which are going almost straight up now. Not even the ETFs linked to BRIC nation indices are doing what the stock markets in those countries are doing.

For now, the Dow remains in short term bear trend, intermediate term bull trend and Primary Bear Trend.