Stock Market Analysis

Monday, June 08, 2009

Bulls Win The Day...

What was looking like a big down day today turned out much better than expected as the bulls regained lost ground by the end of the day. Bond yields continue to rise across the board in what looks like a strategic reallocation into equities over the past few days. Volume continues to move lower as more and more investors sit on the sidelines expecting a pullback.

This intermediate bull trend that the Dow is in is an extremely gradual one, which is what makes this 5 sideways days look very normal. In fact, the Dow could continue to go sideways until the 30days moving average catch up again. Such gradual advance is extremely healthy and may be the future behavior of the market as investors become more educated and risk adverse after this crisis. However, this rally is not going to go much further without a significant pullback. This is what I firmly believe in even though there isn't any signs to prove it yet. Declining volume is bad but declining volume without signs of retreat also shows that there are still significant bullishness in the market and when investors on the sidelines have waited long enough without a pullback, they will inevitably jump right back in again.

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