Stock Market Analysis

Thursday, May 14, 2009

Why was the Dow up When Jobless Claims were up?


Yes, the Dow was up 46 points today and the Nasdaq composite up 25 points on a day where jobless claims were higher than last week. What happened?

Bullish stocks do not go up in a smooth slope neither do bearish stocks go down in a smooth slope. This is the same with almost everything that can be charted in the stock market. Jobless claims chart looks very much like a stock chart with short term and intermediate term retreats within every bull or bear trend. What the Jobless Claims number did today was one of those very healthy pullup within a new bear trend. This is because it is lower than the jobless claims number 2 weeks ago, forming a lower low (last week) and a lower high (this week). This is an extremely healthy pattern which should promote some investment confidence. Of course, things would have been VERY different if the jobless claims number today was higher than 2 weeks ago.

The Nasdaq composite also rebounded from its 30DMA today, forming a classic short term pullback within an intermediate bull trend. This is the kind we saw back in the pre 2007 bull trend. Very healthy and will continue the bull trend if followed up tomorrow.

Tomorrow is May equities options expiration day (see stock market calendar) along with the Empire State Index and would be a slightly volatile day. How the market close tomorrow would be important to the readiness which the Dow would reach the 9000 points level.

Labels: , ,

0 Comments:

Post a Comment

<< Home