Stock Market Analysis

Sunday, May 10, 2009

Inflation Data Week...


Every week follow jobs report week is inflation data week when the PPI and CPI are released (see stock market calendar). Inflation week used to be pretty volatile and scary before the crash begun but it has faded into the background lately. Yes, nobody's worried about inflation in a recession, but, this will definitely be the main worry once we get out of this recession.

The Dow broke out of its 30WMA decisively last week, gaining a total of 164 points. In fact, this is the first time the Dow has broken significantly above its 30WMA since May 2008 when the crisis begun going into full throttle. This is definitely a significant event, suggesting a change in nature. The next challenge would be the 9000 points level where its 200DMA is. Again, I do not think its going to go past the 200DMA like it doesn't exist. 200DMAs are extremely strong and important resistance/support levels that is going to draw a lot of buying and selling. For now, I don't see any problem for the Dow to go straight for the 9000 points level. The Dow remains in short term and intermediate term bull trend within a primary bear trend.

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