Stock Market Analysis

Wednesday, January 16, 2008

No Rate Cuts....


FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
You know what? Core CPI numbers came in inline with expectations at 0.2% while headline rate came in 0.3% and hey, no news from Uncle Ben! What does this mean? Even though the inflation number is inline with expectations, analysts expectations is clearly not what the Fed is expecting to justify an early cut! We all know by now that if inflation numbers turn in favorable that the Fed will throw in a rate cut almost immediately following the release but hey, NOTHING! That threw the market into a complete disarray that ended the day right about where it begun. Does that mean that the Fed is not going to cut rates afterall? MAYBE! If there is any intention to cut rates under the present pressure on the dollar and surge in gold and inflation number, Uncle Ben would have cut... TODAY! Well, the next big thing would be what Uncle Ben says in congress Tomorrow. BUT, IMO there is too much talk! Its time for some action! Price multiples have been severely depressed with the multiples compression so far and it does look ridiculous to see multiples compressed further across the board. If the Fed does please the market, we could see a really huge rebound. That's a really BIG "if". So, what exactly is "Multiple Compression"? This is a term coined up by popular finance describing a situation where Price Earning Ratios of stocks are took down across the board in a broad bear market.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Huge doji formed today in the Dow with after market futures pointing upwards. All indications suggests that the relief rally or more technically known as a reaction rally is going to happen over the next few days... nothing to cheer about as all technical patterns and indications are starkly bearish. In fact, patterns formed over the past year looks like how it looked just before the 2001 crash! Well, I continue to be wary and continue to balance call options with put options in order to react quickly to any degradation.

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