The CPI numbers coming this Wednesday is the most important that I have ever waited for. In fact, any market action prior to the CPI numbers are merely misleading moves. Why is that so? That is because Uncle Ben could cut rates the moment the CPI numbers are released! YES! Uncle Ben wanted to do something during the last Fed speech but he held back because he wanted to see how inflation is behaving before taking the shot! If the CPI numbers turns in lower as expected, Uncle Ben could drop the case for inflation and just cut fed fund rates 25 basis points and the discount window by another 50 basis points! However, if the CPI numbers turns in HIGHER, I can assure you that the market is going to be very very disappointed as it will not only kill any possibility of a rate cut right after the CPI numbers but also during the meeting end of the month. Gold is making a rush along with the continued downwards shift in the bond yield curve. All these goes to show a general concensus that inflation is indeed a concern and a flight to wealth protection is underway. So, all cards are in the hands of the CPI numbers and any speculation before the release are just that, Speculations.
Labels: CPI, fundamental analysis, technical analysis
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