Stock Market Analysis

Tuesday, August 14, 2007

Investors Lose Their Guts At Last...


Investors totally lost their guts today in a coordinated exodus. The Financial sector was again bombarded by a mass panic sell off, resulting in a 2.5% ditch. Fundamentally, I can only say that investors totally lost their guts, compounded by hedge fund drawouts. Decliners led advancers by a huge huge margin, in a market action which can only be described as a "Beating". Technically, the Dow ditched and formed a huge down candle when it should have completed the rebound by closing up today. This action has not only formed a new 4 months low, but has also totally negated the previous rebound signals, including the dragon tail formation. Trend indicators has turned a definite bearish signal and the Weekly 30MA is barely holding its ground. It may indeed be time for a bigger correction than we initially expected. Short term support level is at 12780, breaching which, the Dow would see much more downside to come. Even though the market looks extremely weak now, it is still hard to imagine a direct and committed ditch from this point onwards. Looking back at the recent corrections over the past 4 years, there was never one correction which goes so deeply down and continues down. So is this the start of a bear market or a market crash? I would not think so yet. It is not easy for the market to crash and from the volume today, I would think that point has not been reached yet. It is still an extremely uncertain market, so don't be too quick to make a decision to go short yet.

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