Stock Market Analysis

Tuesday, March 06, 2007

Morning Star Signals Formed By Major Indices!

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Looks like the US Markets and world markets are one family now... one can affect the other. With the pull up in the world markets, the Dow rallied 157.18 points, posting the greatest single day gain since this rally begun in July 2006. Japan's Nikkei stock average closed up 1.22 percent, Britain's FTSE 100 regained 1.32 percent, Germany's DAX index rose 0.92 percent, and France's CAC-40 was up 0.97 percent. Internals were also great with advancers leading decliners by a mile. This rebound is therefore strictly a technical rebound based on investor sentiments...so, lets go look at the technicals...

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Today's rebound was surprising and not surprising all at the same time. What was surprising was that I did expect the major indices to test their 200MA before rebounding in my post yesterday and seriously, I did not expect to see it so soon. What was not surprising was these; First, I did mention that both indices are coming up against their psychological support level of 12000 and 2330 in my post 2 days ago. Both the Dow and Nasdaq bounced off these levels. Secondly, I also mentioned that my proprietary option swing trading system, the Star Trading System didn't support this correction with any trades to downside and suspected that this correction is not going to last. However, only one thing failed to please me today. The volume. Major reversal points should be supported by growing volume, like what we saw back in July 2006 when the markets turned into this bull trend. However, yesterday's pullup ended in declining volume instead indicating that there was more interest in the correction than in this pullup. This is not to say that this pullup does not count as it did form the powerful morning star candlestick formation in oversold position at support level. This is a very powerful combination that usually results in a good reversal. So, how would I make sense of this? I would say I want to see a followup on growing volume tomorrow in order to confirm this morning star formation.



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