Start Of A Market Crash?

Welcome back from the Easter Weekend!

I hope everyone had lots of fun because I certainly did, viewing cherry blossoms in Jeju island of South Korea! :)

Even though its a beautiful spring with flowers in full bloom right now, things are not looking all that rosy in the US Market at all. One thing I did get right last week though was that, as usual, Easter week closed sideways / positive. One good thing about the positive day last Thursday is that it set the market up nicely in a rising peak, rising bottom formation which places the odds going forward from this point UPWARDS, rebounding off the February low as I have said last week.

Yes, the market is very very close to a market crash but not JUST yet.

I know a lot of people who thinks this is the start of that crash but I still don't think so because the necessary pieces are just not in place yet. Just like everything else in life, there is a chain of events that must happen before something big can happen, that's the same thing in the stock market as well. Even though a lot of people think the stock market just crash with no timing and no reason, that's just not true. Its only true for people who don't know what to monitor and what signs to look out for. For those people, even the weather seems random (I hope you guys know the weather ISN'T random).

Yes, the pieces for the market crash is coming together but not just quite in position yet. As such, there is no reason for me to believe that the market is going to suddenly go much lower and crash at this point without reason. So, if that scenario is not possible, then the only reasonable way forward is a recovery out of this intermediate correction and back into the primary bull trend. So, lets see what happens.

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For now, the market turns a short term neutral trend within an intermediate neutral trend and primary bull trend.