Stock Market Analysis

Monday, August 21, 2017

US Market Outlook Week 4 Aug

Welcome to week 4 of August!

Time flies and it is my birthday week again and that means another round of Jason's Birthday Sale on my Star Trading System Mentoring Course! Check it out now and learn with me 1 to 1!

The US market continued downwards last week after a failed reversal and the Dow proceeded to retest the 30MA as I have expected in my original outlook 2 weeks ago.

A lot of people asked me if this is the start of a market crash and I have always answered, no. I not only expect this to be a healthy intermediate correction for the sake of higher prices in the near future, I also expect this bull market to last at least for the next year as long as Trump remains in office. Why is that so? So far, nothing in the economic data suggests a bubble like all previous market crashes and nothing in the economic data suggests weakness as well. In fact, we are looking at a healthy growing economy riding on the back of an extremely conservative policy making which is aimed at reviving the local business, bringing back Jobs and business to the US (at the expense of many of the other countries that are so used to selling cheaper products to the US of course). As long as such policies are in place and are being developed, I see strong fundamental support and reason for the bull market to continue.

In fact, the last market crash of 2008 is arguably the worst market crash in the history of the US market due to many toxic reasons that built up in the US economy over the decades. That one crash "detoxed" the US economy, straightened up credit policies which was the cause of the whole bubble, cleared out the housing bubble etc, setting the fundamentals for the economy to grow in a more healthy manner and for the stock market to go into yet another real bull market that has not been seen since the tech bubble of 2000.

Many experts would disagree with me on these. In fact, many are quoting the Hindenburg Omen for basis of a market crash but lets not forget how the Hindenburg Omen missed it last year when it was ringing off its hooks. US is having a president that has never been seen before with policies that never have been pushed for before and growing on reasons that never have existed before. This makes many of the historical patterns that we were so used to less than effective. At least this is what I think and so far, I think I have been pretty accurate about the US market for the past 12 years.

For now, the market remains in short term bear trend within an intermediate neutral trend and primary bull trend.

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