Stock Market Analysis

Wednesday, March 02, 2016

Weird Questions...

The market continued upwards today, closing the S&P500 a small 8 points higher and like I said to paid subscribers yesterday, I do expect the S&P500 to break the 2000 level and challenge the 2050 before everything goes tumbling again. Yes, that's how all previous market crashes behave, no market crashes go straight down. A lot of amateurs tend to think of market crashes as a huge single day drop of a few thousand points causing panic around the world. But no, it doesn't happen that way neither has that kind of thing happened before. Market crashes are long term bear markets that typically take about a year to play out, not in just a day. This is why I am always surprised when people ask me if the market crash is going to come and I always said, unless you live on Mars, it has already happened since last November. And then there will always be people asking me that since I think the market crash is here, do I expect the US to go into recession? That's also one of the strangest question I have ever heard... which market crash has not sent the US into some kind of recession? Recessions and market crashes (real market crashes not the kind of single day flash crash due mainly to technical reasons) go hand in hand. Why is that so? Because money goes hand in hand. When people are rich and spending and investing, everything goes up, stock market, economy, housing etc. When people are poor and not spending nor investing, everything goes down, stock market, economy, housing etc. Its an oversimplistic way of seeing it but I think it illustrates the relationship.

Today was a truly bullish day spurred by a better than expected ADP employment report that seems to suggest that the coming Friday Jobs Report is going to be able to exceed its lofty expectations. Well, that do tie in nicely with the 2050 scenario that I am expecting.

Market Crash Timer: RED

For now, the market remains in short term bull trend within an intermediate and primary bull trend.


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