Stock Market Analysis

Monday, April 29, 2013

Bull Trap Day?

The Dow gained 106 points today despite continued worsening economic data.

Fundamentals
US market was decidedly positive on this second last trading day of April despite economic data continuing to turn in worse than expected. However, on closer investigation, the market today wasn't really as bullish as it looks. Trading volume was the lowest this month so far, giving very little credit to the move today. Investors also didn't reallocate strongly back into equities from bonds like what truly bullish days should be like. Options traders also didn't get onboard as they continued to keep total equities put call ratio in the uncertainty range. All in all, today's bullish day looks more like a bull trap before the "Selling in May and Going Away" begins.

Technicals
If its not for the reasons above, the Dow truly looks like it has completed a bullish continuation pattern. The Dow also failed to beat the April high, which is an important level to break in order to confirm the bullish continuation pattern. All in all, the intermediate correction looks set to start at around this level and I would definitely not be newly long right now.

For now, the Dow remains in short term neutral trend within an intermediate and primary bull trend.

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