Stock Market Analysis

Thursday, November 29, 2012

Dow Gains Despite Missing Expectations

The Dow gained 36 points today despite economic data missing expectations.

Fundamentals
US market closed higher today despite both GDP and Jobless Claims missing estimates. GDP turned in 2.7% versus estimates of 2.8% and Jobless Claims turned in 393K versus estimates of 390K. However, the good news is that both numbers are vastly better than their previous numbers and that could be the catalyst for the higher close. Even though it was a higher close, it wasn't a particularly optimistic trading day. In fact, there were plenty of intraday ups and downs in what is more appropriately an uncertain trading day. There also wasn't the usual reallocation back into equities from bonds and options traders even took total equities put call ratio back up to par indicating general uncertainty. Indeed, the market is currently extremely undecided with the fiscal cliff looming ahead with the general sense that the market is short term overbought.

Technicals
Today's indeed a positive day with lots of uncertainty. The Dow continues to struggle around its 30MA and if the current trend is a full repeat of the May to June pattern, then we should see an extended period of volatile sideways struggle before the bulls can resume.

For now, the Dow remains in short term neutral trend within an intermediate term neutral trend and primary bull trend.

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