Stock Market Analysis

Wednesday, October 03, 2012

Dow Gains on ADP Data

Dow gains 12 points on better than expected ADP employment data.

Fundamentals
US market opened on an optimistic note today as the ADP employment data cast an optimistic light on this Friday's Grandfather-of-all-economic-data Jobs Report. Analysts are expecting a rise in non-farm payroll this time round and such positive expectations is what leads very easily to disappointment. This is because investors do get disappointed even if non-farm payroll rises but not by more than what is expected (G-R-E-E-D!). So far, there has been obvious uncertainty in the market surrounding the outcome of the coming report. Plenty of short term profit taking and selling into strength. However, it is also under the background of such uncertainty would a positive surprise cause a rally like it did last month. However, there were clear buying into weaknesses ahead of the report while there are actually clear selling into strength... does insiders already know something of the outcome of the report?

Technicals
The Dow has been moving largely sideways so far with plenty of resistance. The S&P500 has been moving upwards slowly again with plenty of resistance. Short term bullish momentum is still evident and rising but with the amount of resistance that we are witnessing now, the 13,600 points level could be where the Dow forms a double top that leads into the intermediate correction that I have been talking about.

For now, the Dow remains in short term neutral trend within an intermediate and primary bull trend.

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