Stock Market Analysis

Sunday, August 05, 2012

Jobs Report Surprised...

The Dow gained 217 points last Friday as nonfarm payrolls surged despite unemployment rate inching up to 8.3%. Nonfarm payroll was a huge surprise last Friday, beating consensus of 100,000 and last month's revised number of 64,000 by a mile. As with all economic numbers, such sudden surges are never a good thing because it will almost always fail by a mile by the next release. Fundamentals in the market and in the global markets remain shaky and the market remains stuck in an extremely volatile condition. In fact, we would almost certainly see the Dow retreat and retest the 30MA this week as conservative investors take some profit off the table. Indeed, all single day rallies lead to a period of sideways or slightly negative trading. For now, the pattern of serial bearish divergence has not yet been broken and is still too strong a bearish signal to turn one's back to.

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