Stock Market Analysis

Wednesday, January 11, 2012

Dow Crawls Along...

The Dow continued sideways today, closing marginally lower by 13 points in a mixed trading day.

Global investors were hit with sanction threats from Iran which could affect one fifth of global oil supply, something which will raise oil prices and put pressure on equities. Investors struggled against the general sense of optimism in the market against the news and managed to close the day close to par. Investors rushed back for the safety of bonds today, depressing bond yields across the board strongly but traders seem to be more optimistic as they accumulated into the exodus, providing strength to return to breakeven throughout the day. Options traders also continued to keep total equities put call ratio significantly below par in favor of call options trading. All in all, the general sense of optimism in the market seems to be holding up against bad news globally so far and we should see a run at the very next good news, perhaps a surprise in Thursday's economic numbers.

Even though the Dow made nothing more than a sideways day today, it did attempt to continue the bull run yesterday, which is a very good sign under a total lack of catalyst. I would just need one good continuation run to turn the intermediate trend back to bullish. So far, the bull run over the past few weeks has been slow and steady and that's the way to go.

For now, the Dow remains in short term bull trend within an intermediate neutral trend and primary bull trend.


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