Stock Market Analysis

Wednesday, July 13, 2011

End Of Pullback?

The Dow made a slight pullup today, closing higher by 44 points as some investors buy into the Fed's easing promise.

Fundamentals
Investors ended a lackluster morning and bought into the market in force after Bernanke's promise of further easing, pushing the Dow higher by more than a hundred points. However, the strength quickly dissipated as profit taking took over the rest of the day, taking the market to close much lower. Of note, the VIX once again closed higher despite a higher close in the market. The VIX should move in opposite direction to the S&P500 under normal conditions. Whenever the VIX rise on a higher S&P500, a sell off typically happens within a couple of days. The last time this happened was back in July 6 which started this correction just 2 days later. Investors were obviously cautious ahead of tomorrow's Jobless Claims as analyst's expectation of a much lower number seems to be setting up for a disappointment.

Technicals
Even though the Dow closed higher today, it closed within the lower half of yesterday's trading range, making it more of a sideways day than an up day. A strong up day within a strong short term down trend is totally normal and actually sets it up to move on lower over the next few days. None of my short term indicators show any change in short term bearish momentum and with supporting evidence from the VIX, there is no doubt the Dow is going to continue on towards its 30MA.

For now, the Dow remains in a short term bear trend in an intermediate term neutral trend within a primary bull trend.
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