Stock Market Analysis

Tuesday, December 22, 2009

Typical Low Volume Day Ahead of Christmas

The Dow gained 50 points today on recovering retail sales and existing home sales.

Investors looked past a lower than expected Q3 final GDP and placed their optimistic votes on a higher retail sales for the week and better than expected existing home sales (see Stock Market Calendar). I see today's market action as more of a follow up on yesterday's optimism and clearly, these are that few late comers to the party as trading volume is way lower than average today.

The Dow is once again at the top of its short term neutral channel, yes the moment of truth again. If the Nasdaq composite is going to lead a breakout, its going to be over the next couple of days. Otherwise, its back down to the bottom of the channel again at 10250. I am not picking up significant short term bullish momentum yet and the only thing going for a breakout scenario is the fact that the Nasdaq has broken out and has followed up higher today. As such, odds continue to favor a topside breakout on the Dow for the short term.

For now, the Dow remains in short term neutral trend within an intermediate and long term bull trend.

Chart of Dow Made Using Telechart. Want Your Own Charting Software? Download FREE Now!


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